Adobe forecasts AI-driven retail traffic surge 130% this holiday season

By Khal · · 1 min read

Editorial illustration: Golden light trails pass through an arch of interconnected glowing spheres toward a shopping cart holding wrapped gifts and evergreen sprigs against a dark blue background.
AI-generated editorial illustration · AI-generated editorial illustration · Published Sep 28, 2026, 3:16 p.m. (1 hour ago)

In brief

  • AI-assisted traffic to retail sites projected to grow 130% year-over-year through end of 2026
  • Total US online holiday spending forecast at $275.1 billion, up 6.7% from prior year
  • AI-referred visitors generate 43% higher revenue per visit and show 32%+ cart-add rates
  • Cyber Monday expected to be largest shopping day at $15.1 billion in spending
  • 77% of surveyed consumers report greater confidence purchasing with AI assistance

AI Shoppers Spend More, Return Less

AI-assisted shoppers spend more, return less, and browse longer, according to Adobe's data. In August 2026, AI-referred visitors generated 43% higher revenue per visit compared to shoppers arriving through non-AI channels. Cart-add rates among AI-referred visitors exceeded 32% during certain periods. Beyond immediate purchase behavior, 77% of surveyed consumers said they felt more confident in their purchases when using AI assistance, and 69% reported being less likely to return items they bought with an AI tool's help.

The underlying pattern is clear: AI-referred visitors spend more time on retail sites, view more pages, and add items to their carts at higher rates than shoppers from conventional channels.

Cyber Monday remains the single biggest online shopping day, with projected spending of $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year-over-year. Black Friday is expected to clock in at $12.9 billion, representing a 9.2% increase. Adobe projects a 141% spike in AI-assisted traffic on Thanksgiving Day, followed by a 95% increase on Black Friday, and an 88% jump on Cyber Monday.

Discounting will play a role in driving conversion. Cyber Week discounts could reach up to 30% off, according to Adobe's forecast. The combination of aggressive promotions and AI-driven shopping assistance suggests retailers face both opportunity and margin pressure as the season unfolds.

Consumer Confidence Drives Adoption

A survey of 5,000 US consumers underscores the growing trust in AI-powered shopping tools. Beyond confidence metrics, the data shows AI assistance reduces purchase regret—a critical metric for retailers managing return rates and customer lifetime value. As AI tools become more integrated into the shopping journey, the gap between AI-referred and traditional traffic widens, signaling a structural shift in retail's digital landscape.

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