ASIC chair says no prediction market operator has applied to run in Australia
In brief
- ASIC has received zero applications from prediction market operators, Chair Sarah Court told a parliamentary hearing.
- Future applications would be assessed similarly to binary options, which are banned for retail clients until 2031.
- Between 74% and 77% of active retail binary options clients lost money before the ban.
- ACMA blocked Polymarket in 2025 as illegal online gambling, according to Crypto Briefing.
The binary options benchmark
That comparison carries weight. Binary options are banned for retail clients in Australia until October 1, 2031, and they pay out on an all-or-nothing basis (you either collect the full payoff or lose your stake). Prediction markets share that structure, per Crypto Briefing's report.
The numbers behind the ban are stark. ASIC's data from the period before the ban, as cited by Crypto Briefing, shows between 74% and 77% of active retail clients lost money. Total retail losses reached A$15.7 million, against A$1.7 million in gains.
Moneysmart warnings and Kirkland's concerns
In August 2026, ASIC published consumer guidance through its Moneysmart service warning Australians to avoid unlicensed prediction market platforms. That guidance described these services as akin to gambling.
It also stated that no prediction market operator holds an Australian financial market license.
That gap matters for users. People on these platforms have no local protection if they lose their capital, and there's no Australian regulatory backstop if they end up in a legal dispute, Crypto Briefing reported. ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland has reinforced the warnings, pointing to the possibility of users losing everything they put in. He's also flagged a structural problem: trading on these platforms tends to favor better-informed participants, which can leave ordinary users exposed to people trading on insider information.
Polymarket, Kalshi and the VPN workaround
Polymarket and Kalshi have listed markets on a range of events, including political outcomes. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) blocked Polymarket in 2025, classifying it as illegal online gambling under the Interactive Gambling Act, according to Crypto Briefing. The block came even as the platform kept offering contracts tied to Australian political events.
The block isn't airtight. Australians can still reach offshore prediction market sites using VPNs, which mask a user's location. Anyone trading that way does so without the protections of local regulation, Crypto Briefing reported.
Frequently asked questions
How would ASIC assess a prediction market application?
According to Crypto Briefing, any future application from a prediction market operator would be assessed in a similar way to binary options. Binary options are banned for retail clients in Australia until October 1, 2031, and pay out on an all-or-nothing basis, a structure prediction markets share.
Are prediction markets licensed in Australia?
No. ASIC's August 2026 Moneysmart guidance stated that no prediction market operator holds an Australian financial market license. Users have no local protection if they lose capital and no Australian regulatory backstop in a legal dispute, Crypto Briefing reported.
Is Polymarket blocked in Australia?
Crypto Briefing reported that ACMA blocked Polymarket in 2025, classifying it as illegal online gambling under the Interactive Gambling Act. Australians can still reach offshore prediction market sites using VPNs, which mask a user's location.
