Bitcoin ETFs shed $635 million as BTC tests funds' estimated $81,500 cost basis
In brief
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted about $635 million in net outflows on Oct. 22, per SoSoValue.
- Largest daily outflow since June 25, reversing nearly 60% of prior inflows.
- BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC accounted for roughly 74.2% of the day's outflows.
- Glassnode estimates ETFs acquired their Bitcoin at an average of about $81,500.
- Bitcoin fell as low as $80,841 during the reporting period.
BlackRock and Fidelity led the exits
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led outflows with $254 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $217 million, SoSoValue data show. Together, they made up roughly 74.2% of the day's net outflows. ARK Invest's ARKB lost $109 million, Grayscale's GBTC lost $30 million and Bitwise's BITB lost $27 million (Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the only Bitcoin fund with inflows, at about $2 million).
The selling reversed nearly 60% of the inflows from the previous three sessions. Bitcoin funds took in $527 million on Oct. 19, $23 million on Oct. 20 and $528 million on Oct. 21, a recovery that followed two consecutive weeks of ETF outflows. Thursday's withdrawals cut the week's net inflows to about $443 million.
Ethereum funds didn't escape it. US-listed Ethereum ETFs recorded about $111 million in net outflows on Oct. 22, according to SoSoValue data cited by CryptoSlate, with BlackRock's ETHA losing $75 million and its staking-focused ETHB losing $17 million. Grayscale's two Ethereum funds lost a combined $20 million, while Fidelity's FETH took in about $2 million.
The $80,000 line
Bitcoin fell as low as $80,841 during the reporting period. Glassnode estimated, using data through Oct. 19, that US spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired their holdings at an average of about $81,500 (corporate treasuries sit near an estimated $80,200). The firm also found that buy orders near $80,000, depleted in the Oct. 15 selloff, had been replenished by Oct. 20, though at smaller levels.
Glassnode flagged the True Market Mean near $77,600 as the next major downside reference if Bitcoin closes below $80,000. On the upside, the report noted that holders' acquisition costs and concentrated sell orders between $85,000 and $87,500 could limit any recovery.
Corporate treasury demand has weakened, too. Since June, monthly purchases have stayed below one-tenth of their November 2024 peak.
Macro backdrop
The outflows came at the same time as escalating Middle East tensions and renewed worries about US tech stocks. Hostilities raised concerns about energy supply and pushed Brent crude above $110 a barrel, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% on Thursday and the S&P 500 dropped 1.21%.
Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, told CryptoSlate the unstable flows came from cautious investors looking for short-term trades rather than long-term commitments. He said Bitcoin was finding tentative support above $80,000, but buying momentum wasn't strong enough for a sustained recovery. Massabni also argued that persistently high energy prices could force central banks to keep policy restrictive, reducing liquidity for speculative investments.
The Federal Reserve's next policy decision is due Oct. 28.
Frequently asked questions
What is the estimated cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs?
Glassnode estimated, using data through Oct. 19, that US spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired their holdings at an average of about $81,500. It put the corporate treasury average at about $80,200. Both are estimates.
Which Bitcoin ETFs saw the biggest outflows on Oct. 22?
BlackRock's IBIT led with $254 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $217 million, according to SoSoValue data. ARKB lost $109 million, GBTC $30 million and BITB $27 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in about $2 million.
What price levels is Glassnode watching for Bitcoin?
Glassnode identified the True Market Mean near $77,600 as the next major downside reference if Bitcoin closes below $80,000. The report also noted that concentrated sell orders between $85,000 and $87,500 could limit any recovery.
