Bitcoin eyes $59,000 support ahead of Thursday's U.S. inflation data
In brief
- Bitcoin bounced off $59,000 support Wednesday after falling from higher levels overnight
- Core PCE inflation forecast 3.3%-3.4%, highest since October 2023, releases Thursday 8:30 ET
- Hotter-than-expected data could reinforce rate-hike expectations and pressure cryptocurrencies
- Cooler readings could ease rate fears and slow dollar index advance
- RWA perpetual futures volumes hit all-time high in May despite broader exchange decline
The $59,000 Floor
That level is $59,000, which has emerged as strong support, capping downside moves in recent days. Bitcoin's ability to hold this price has become the focal point for traders watching the near-term trend. A similar pattern played out earlier this month. On June 5, the sell-off lost steam near $59,000, paving the way for a bounce that carried prices to $67,000 in following days.
The question now is whether this support holds or breaks under the weight of macro headwinds.
Thursday's Inflation Test
The headline PCE is forecast to have risen 4.1% year-on-year in May, the highest level since April 2023. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure, is expected to have increased by 3.3%-3.4%, the highest since October 2023. The release is scheduled for Thursday at 8:30 ET.
A hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for Fed rate hikes. This would add bullish momentum to the dollar index, which is trading at its highest level since April 2025. A stronger dollar typically weighs on risk assets, and could potentially pressure stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, if core PCE comes in below estimates, that could ease rate-hike fears and slow the dollar index's rise. That scenario would likely provide relief to Bitcoin and other risk-on assets.
Market Divergence
Broader crypto trading activity has softened. Combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% in May to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024. Yet one segment bucked the trend. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% in May, hitting a new all-time high. The divergence signals that while macro uncertainty has dampened retail interest, institutional flows into real-world asset derivatives remain robust.
