Bitcoin falls below $77,700 cost basis of recent buyers, CryptoQuant data shows
In brief
- CryptoQuant put the cost basis of one-to-three-month buyers at $77,700.
- BTC/USD traded near $76,500 at the time of Cointelegraph's Nov. 3 report.
- BTC/USD had traded above the Trader Onchain Realized Price since Aug. 19.
- Short-term holders' cost basis stood at $75,832, an STH MVRV reading of 1.012.
A cost basis that used to be support
CryptoQuant defines the one-to-three-month cohort as speculative traders (the group that's most sensitive to short-term price volatility). During Bitcoin bull markets, their cost basis historically formed upward-trending support.
That's why the break matters.
The $77,700 figure comes from CryptoQuant's Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands metric. In Monday's analysis, the contributor said the Trader Realized Price had kept rising steadily while BTC corrected, so the gap between price and cost basis narrowed significantly. The contributor laid out what happens on the other side of that line:
"When BTC falls below this level, however, the same cost basis can later act as resistance as underwater traders use a return to breakeven as an opportunity to exit"
Where the lower bands sit
The nearest band below the cost basis sits at a 12% aggregate loss, which CryptoQuant put at $68,400. Price last fell through that band at the start of June. Over the following month, it deviated as much as 12.6% below it.
Short-term holders aren't far behind
Below $77,000, Bitcoin was also approaching the realized price of short-term holders (STHs), the broader speculative base of entities that have held their BTC without selling for up to 155 days. CryptoQuant data put their cost basis at $75,832 as of Tuesday, which works out to a reading of 1.012 on the cohort's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio.
Past the STH breakeven point, the next key psychological support level is an MVRV reading of 0.85, described as an area of "tactical capitulation" or a short trap. BTC/USD last fell through 0.85 at the start of June. It didn't recover the level until mid-August.
Taken together, CryptoQuant's data shows two speculative cohorts with cost bases clustered between $75,832 and $77,700, and Bitcoin now trading right among them.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Trader Onchain Realized Price for Bitcoin?
It's CryptoQuant's measure of the cost basis of investors who entered the market between one and three months earlier, a cohort CryptoQuant treats as speculative traders. As of Cointelegraph's Nov. 3 report, it stood at $77,700, while BTC/USD traded around $76,500.
What is the short-term holder realized price for Bitcoin?
Short-term holders are entities that have held BTC without selling for up to 155 days. CryptoQuant data put their cost basis at $75,832 as of Tuesday, which corresponds to a reading of 1.012 on the cohort's MVRV ratio.
