Bitcoin falls to $62,600 as U.S.-Iran tensions drive oil surge

Oil shock ripples through crypto and equities

Brent crude rose nearly 4% reflecting the renewed open conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that carried about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies before the conflict, has been de-facto closed for 136 days, with attacks on tankers continuing to reduce traffic through the vital channel.

The spillover into equities was swift. European benchmarks fell about 1% while U.S. index futures dropped 0.3%. The CoinDesk 20 index lost 0.6% of its value over the same period, reflecting crypto's sensitivity to broader macro shocks.

Treasury yields and rate expectations shift

Higher oil prices raise near-term inflation risks, pushing up Treasury yields and reducing demand for rate-sensitive assets like bitcoin and gold. The two-year Treasury yield has been pushed to 4.28% as markets reassess inflation and monetary policy.

Inflation data looms. June CPI headline inflation is expected to have slowed to 3.8% from 4.2% a year ago, while core inflation is forecast to hold at 2.9%. Yet the oil shock complicates the picture. Prediction markets assigned a 36% chance of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this month, a metric that'll shift if energy prices stay elevated.

Crypto volumes and market positioning

Beneath the headline declines, crypto trading showed resilience. CEX spot trading volumes climbed 15.3% to $1.11 trillion in June, the first rise in five months. RWA perpetual volumes surged to a record $311 billion in June, signaling sustained appetite for leveraged real-world asset exposure.

The key risk now is duration. Traders see the perceived odds of Hormuz reopening by the end of the year dropped from 65% to 56%, suggesting markets are pricing in a longer disruption window. If oil remains elevated through the Fed's next decision cycle, rate-sensitive assets like bitcoin will face continued headwinds.