Bitcoin fell after all seven post-pause Fed hikes since 2016, Crypto Briefing finds
In brief
- Bitcoin fell 30 days after all seven post-pause Fed hikes since 2016, Crypto Briefing found.
- Bitcoin's median decline across those seven windows was 2.4%, the research said.
- Dec. 9 hike odds stood near 67% on Polymarket and CME FedWatch on Nov. 5.
- Bitcoin dropped 42% in 2018 between the midterms and the December hike.
The pattern Crypto Briefing found
The Fed hiked on Sept. 16 and paused on Oct. 28. That's the sequence (a hike, then a one-meeting pause) behind every case in the study, and a Dec. 9 move would complete it again.
Across those seven 30-day windows, Bitcoin finished lower every time, with a median decline of 2.4%, according to Crypto Briefing. Stocks didn't show the same consistency. The outlet said equities were split over the same post-hike windows, which makes the crypto side of the result stand out.
Seven for seven.
It's a clean record, but the sample is seven hikes, and the research doesn't present it as a forecast.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket and CME FedWatch put the odds of a Dec. 9 hike at about 67%, as cited by Crypto Briefing, with prices and odds taken as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Nov. 5. If the Fed does move, it'd be the eighth hike to fit the post-pause pattern. The report's historical data ran through the Nov. 4 close.
The 2018 precedent
Crypto Briefing pointed to 2018 as part of its historical analysis. That year, the same calendar produced a 42% drop in Bitcoin between the midterm election and the December hike.
So what does a 42% slide in one cycle and a 2.4% median across seven windows tell readers about this December? Not a price target. They're historical observations (one extreme, one typical), and neither is a statement about where Bitcoin trades next.
The full report sits behind Crypto Briefing Pro, the newsroom's subscriber app, and the outlet said its research is information, not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
What pattern did Crypto Briefing find between Fed hikes and Bitcoin?
Crypto Briefing found Bitcoin finished lower 30 days after all seven Fed hikes since 2016 that immediately followed a one-meeting pause. The median decline across those seven windows was 2.4%, while stocks were split over the same periods.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike on Dec. 9?
Polymarket and CME FedWatch put the odds of a Dec. 9 hike at about 67%, as cited by Crypto Briefing. Those odds were taken as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, after the Fed hiked on Sept. 16 and paused on Oct. 28.
