Bitcoin fights to hold $80,000 ahead of FOMC decision and big tech earnings
In brief
- Bitcoin began October's final week defending $80,000 support, per Cointelegraph.
- FedWatch data showed over 90% odds the Fed holds rates at 3.75-4%.
- Brent crude hit $117 Friday before slipping to around $110 Monday.
- Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Intel report Q3 earnings this week.
The Fed isn't expected to move
Markets priced over 90% odds that rates stay in the current 3.75-4% range, according to CME Group FedWatch data cited by Cointelegraph. December is a different story. FedWatch consensus favored a 0.25% hike at that meeting.
Traders will also be watching the language Fed chair Kevin Warsh uses at Wednesday's press conference.
Economist Robin Brooks said markets price only 12% odds of a hike this week, and he argued those expectations are a gift to Warsh (who won't need to fight external demands to change course). Brooks put it this way:
"After very contentious Fed meetings earlier in 2026, this week’s meeting gets zero interest in markets, which price only 12% odds of a hike. That’s nothing versus how markets tried to push Warsh into hiking back in July. A temporary reprieve for Warsh"
Brooks sees a pause as all but inevitable, even with oil climbing and concerns over military escalation in the Middle East. Brent crude reached $117 per barrel on Friday, its highest since March 19, before dropping to around $110 on Monday, per Cointelegraph/TradingView data. In his view, even $125 oil wouldn't force the Fed's hand.
PCE and GDP land Thursday
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due Thursday. Last month's print came in lower than expected at 3.4% year-on-year, though analysts cited by Cointelegraph said the drop came from changes in how certain index elements are calculated. US Q3 GDP data arrives the same day.
AI nerves weigh on equities
Nerves about the AI sector kept pressure on stocks Monday ahead of the Wall Street open. South Korea's KOSPI closed down 1.5% at 5,469 points, per Cointelegraph/TradingView data, after falling as low as 5,308 on Friday amid tech-stock selling as foreign capital sought safety. The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 25,955, its lowest daily close since Aug. 3, according to the same Cointelegraph/TradingView chart data.
Last week's stronger-than-expected US earnings didn't lift the mood, with attention drawn to Tesla's reduced Q3 capex instead. Microsoft and Alphabet report after Wednesday's close, and Amazon and Intel follow Thursday (around 20% of S&P 500 companies report this week). JPMorgan Asset Management's Raisah Rasid told CNBC she was unfazed by the state of the AI trade.
