Bitcoin gained 84% since January 2024 as 10-year Treasury yields rose, CryptoSlate finds
In brief
- Bitcoin rose 84.2% from Jan. 10, 2024, through Oct. 5, 2026, per CryptoSlate.
- 10-year nominal Treasury yield rose 127 basis points; the real yield rose 113.
- Daily links between Bitcoin, yields and the dollar stayed weak before and after spot ETF trading began.
- Monthly yield correlations turned positive post-ETF, but 32 observations don't show lasting change.
Yields at the top of the range
Bitcoin's price was about $83,086 at 14:25 UTC on Oct. 7, per CryptoSlate's Coinbase data. The US 10-year nominal par yield stood at 5.27% on Oct. 6, down from 5.31% a day earlier, and the real par yield was 2.91%, down from 2.95%.
Both Oct. 5 readings were the highest in the daily series CryptoSlate examined, which starts in January 2017.
That matters because higher yields can raise the return investors expect before they'll justify speculative crypto exposure. CryptoSlate said yield levels don't establish that a yield increase caused Bitcoin's latest decline, though.
What the correlations show
The comparison used Coinbase Bitcoin observations, Treasury yields from FRED and DXY data distributed by Yahoo Finance. Across 2,435 matched daily changes from Jan. 4, 2017, through Oct. 5, 2026, it found weak linear relationships between Bitcoin returns, yield changes and dollar-index returns. That didn't change after the ETFs arrived. In the post-ETF sample (682 matched daily changes from Jan. 11, 2024), neither yield measure had a strong negative daily relationship with Bitcoin.
Monthly data looks a bit different. Across 116 full months from February 2017 through September 2026, correlations were -0.081 for nominal yield changes, -0.228 for real yield changes and -0.164 for DXY returns. For the 32 full post-ETF months from February 2024, both yield figures turned positive (+0.207 and +0.126), while the dollar figure of +0.002 sat close to zero.
Thirty-two observations isn't much. CryptoSlate said the shifts don't establish a lasting change.
The ETF caveat
The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETP shares on January 10, 2024, and BlackRock's IBIT began trading on Nasdaq on January 11. Those dates frame the comparison window, but the analysis doesn't isolate the effect of ETFs. CryptoSlate said it measures price performance only and offers no ETF-driven explanation for Bitcoin's gain.
"These correlations describe co-movement and do not establish causation or predict future returns."
What the numbers do show is narrower. Since January 2024, rising yields and a rising Bitcoin price have coexisted, even with the 10-year yields now sitting at the top of their range since 2017.
Frequently asked questions
Do rising Treasury yields push Bitcoin's price down?
CryptoSlate's review of 2,435 matched daily changes since January 2017 found weak linear relationships between Bitcoin returns and Treasury yield changes. In the post-ETF sample, neither yield measure had a strong negative daily relationship with Bitcoin returns. CryptoSlate said the correlations don't establish causation or predict future returns.
Did spot Bitcoin ETFs cause Bitcoin's 84% gain since January 2024?
The analysis doesn't say so. CryptoSlate measured Bitcoin's 84.2% gain from January 10, 2024, through Oct. 5, 2026, but said the ETF launch dates only define the comparison period. The analysis doesn't isolate the effect of ETFs and offers no ETF-driven explanation for the gain.
How did Bitcoin's monthly correlation with yields change after the ETFs launched?
Across 116 months from February 2017, correlations were -0.081 for nominal yield changes and -0.228 for real yield changes. In the 32 post-ETF months from February 2024, they turned positive at +0.207 and +0.126. CryptoSlate said 32 observations aren't enough to establish a lasting change.
