Bitcoin holds near $80,000 ETF cost basis as inflows slow ahead of Friday data
In brief
- Glassnode places US spot ETF and corporate treasury average costs around $80,000, CryptoSlate reported.
- Farside recorded $526.7 million in ETF net inflows on Oct. 19, then $23.2 million on Oct. 20.
- Both sessions stayed positive; the 95.6% drop reflects slower new money, not withdrawals.
- Flash PMIs and final Michigan inflation expectations land Friday, before the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
ETF money slowed, it didn't reverse
Farside Investors recorded $526.7 million in net inflows on Oct. 19 and $23.2 million on Oct. 20. That's the 95.6% drop. The two sessions still brought in $549.9 million combined, so the slowdown is about new net money (not withdrawals).
Demand looks thinner over a longer window too. Glassnode found 30-day average spot ETF trading volume at less than a quarter of its level a year earlier, and corporate treasury purchases since June have run at less than 10% of the November 2024 peak, CryptoSlate reported.
Where the levels sit
Glassnode's Oct. 21 report, as reported by CryptoSlate, put the estimated ETF cost basis at about $81,500 and corporate treasuries' average cost near $80,200. The Oct. 15 selloff closed hourly near $80,100, briefly below that ETF line.
The largest block of spot bids on Binance sat near $80,000, according to CryptoSlate. The selloff consumed most of it. Bids had come back at a smaller size by Oct. 20.
Above the price, Glassnode found overhead supply between $85,000 and $87,500, where coins bought six to 12 months earlier averaged near $86,700 and modeled futures liquidations clustered between $85,000 and $87,000. Below it, there's a liquidation cluster near $79,600 and a True Market Mean near $77,600.
Friday's macro calendar
A $26 billion five-year TIPS auction is set for Thursday, followed by flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. and the final University of Michigan inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. Friday, all before the Fed's Oct. 28 decision. CryptoSlate noted that a weak TIPS reception could lift real yields even if inflation expectations hold steady.
The backdrop isn't easy. September CPI reached 3.7% annually and the preliminary Michigan survey put one-year expectations at 4.7%, per CryptoSlate. CryptoSlate also noted the Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and it cited a Reuters survey in which 94 of 100 economists expected a hold on Oct. 28.
CryptoSlate's analysis lays out two paths. If Michigan expectations hold at or below the preliminary readings, PMI price components ease, the two-year yield falls and the dollar stays flat or weaker, it sees room to test $85,000 to $87,500. A close below $80,000 would bring the $79,600 cluster into play first, then $77,600.
Bitcoin was down 1.42% over the prior 24 hours.
Frequently asked questions
Did Bitcoin ETFs see outflows when inflows dropped 95.6%?
No. Farside Investors recorded $526.7 million in net inflows on Oct. 19 and $23.2 million on Oct. 20, and both sessions were positive. The two days brought in $549.9 million combined, so the 95.6% figure describes slower new net money, not withdrawals.
What is the estimated cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs?
Glassnode's Oct. 21 report, as reported by CryptoSlate, estimated the US spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis at about $81,500. Corporate treasuries in Glassnode's coverage held bitcoin at an average cost near $80,200.
