Bitcoin miners face $50B funding gap in AI pivot, VanEck warns
In brief
- VanEck: market shifting from AI contract announcements to execution and financing of data center projects.
- Bitcoin mining sector faces $50 billion near-term funding gap; long-term capital needs around $221 billion.
- Only 25% of AI and high-performance computing capacity leased to customers has been delivered.
- Companies with signed AI leases command higher valuation multiples than miners pitching future projects.
- Missed construction milestones risk structural de-ratings from investors.
From Mining to AI
Bitcoin mining profitability collapsed after the 2024 halving, prompting many operators to repurpose their power infrastructure to support AI workloads. Core Scientific signed a multibillion-dollar hosting agreement with AI startup CoreWeave, transforming the company from a bitcoin miner into an AI infrastructure provider. TeraWulf, Hut 8, Iren, and Cipher Mining announced plans to lease power and data center capacity to AI and high-performance computing customers.
Not all miners are abandoning their original mission. Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and CleanSpark are pursuing hybrid strategies that maintain bitcoin mining operations while exploring AI opportunities. Riot Platforms stock is up nearly 94% year-to-date, while Cipher Mining is 62% higher, as bitcoin miners have seen largely green candles across the sector. Yet bitcoin itself has declined about 24% since January as crypto prices continue to slide amid shifting investor focus to AI.
Execution Risk Becomes the Premium
The shift in investor sentiment is stark. VanEck estimated the bitcoin mining sector faces a combined near-term funding gap of roughly $50 billion, with long-term capital needs of about $221 billion if current development plans proceed.
"Execution, not signing, becomes the next premium," said VanEck investment analyst Griffin MacMaster and head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel.
The industry has delivered only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing capacity it has leased to customers. Companies with signed AI leases command valuation multiples above 10 times energized power, while miners still pitching future projects trade at lower multiples. Companies that miss construction milestones risk structural de-ratings from investors.
Winners and Losers
VanEck identified HIVE, Bitdeer, Keel and IREN as names with potential upside if they secure additional contracts. The asset manager also suggested that Marathon Digital, CleanSpark and Riot Platforms remain more closely tied to bitcoin's price performance. The divergence reflects a market now pricing in the execution risk of AI infrastructure buildouts—and the capital required to make them real.
