Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Nears Bear Bottom Threshold After Selloff

The Z-Score and Fair Value

The MVRV Z-Score measures the gap between market value and realized value. When the market price is far above fair value, bitcoin is considered expensive relative to its own history. When the market price falls toward or below fair value, bitcoin is cheap.

Realized price is obtained by averaging the prices of every bitcoin since the last time it was transacted onchain. This figure is widely considered close to bitcoin's intrinsic fair value—a baseline that doesn't shift with daily price swings.

Historical Bottoms and Current Levels

Every major bitcoin cycle bottom has coincided with the Z-Score touching or briefly dipping below zero (into the green zone, in the chart). Most recently, the Z-Score fell below zero in the second half of 2022, marking a price bottom that preceded a three-year bull run.

According to BitBo, the Z-Score is currently at 0.24, just above the upper boundary of the historically significant green zone. That proximity suggests the market is getting closer to fair value—but not there yet.

The Holder Divergence Question

A second layer of analysis reveals why further downside may still be coming. Long-Term Holder MVRV and Short-Term Holder MVRV have not yet converged. When these two metrics close the gap, historically a major cycle low forms, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022.

Currently, Short-Term Holder MVRV stands at 0.84, while Long-Term Holder MVRV remains elevated at 1.29. That gap matters. Long-term holders are sitting on relatively large unrealized profits, indicating further downside in bitcoin may be required before a typical bear market bottom is established.

The narrative isn't one of panic—it's one of proximity. The worst may be behind us. But the final capitulation may not be.