Bitcoin options traders hedge downside amid market uncertainty: Anchorage
In brief
- Bitcoin options traders heavily positioned for downside protection across Deribit, IBIT, and MSTR
- IBIT options defensive positioning ranked 82nd percentile; Deribit at 84th percentile of five-year history
- Bitcoin options markets pricing near-term volatility higher than longer-term volatility for half of 2026
- MicroStrategy options market remains below stress levels despite MSTR shares down 78% year-over-year
Defensive hedges at historic highs
Defensive positioning in IBIT options markets ranked in the 82nd percentile of IBIT's history and the 84th percentile of Deribit's five-year history. Both Deribit and IBIT options markets showed elevated put skew, indicating traders are paying a premium for downside protection.
The elevated hedging reflects a deeper market pattern. Bitcoin options markets have spent nearly half of 2026 pricing higher implied volatility over the next week than over the next month, an unusual inversion. This structure typically signals near-term uncertainty. The pattern has been attributed to a succession of macroeconomic, geopolitical and crypto-specific catalysts that have kept traders focused on immediate risks rather than longer-term trends.
MicroStrategy's options market tells a different story
MicroStrategy's options market remains well below stress levels seen during previous market corrections. Put skew in Strategy options has not reached levels typically associated with fears of forced deleveraging or a broader crisis, according to Anchorage's report.
Yet MicroStrategy itself has faced pressure. MicroStrategy's common shares (MSTR) were down about 78% over the past year and traded around $87 on Thursday. The company's perpetual preferred stock (STRC) fell as low as $82.53 on June 22, roughly 17% below its $100 par value. As of Thursday, STRC was trading around $77, roughly 23% below par.
MicroStrategy disclosed it had increased its fiat reserves to $1.3 billion after STRC partially recovered from its low. The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, pioneered the corporate Bitcoin treasury model in 2020 and remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 847,363 BTC on its balance sheet.
Watching for a shift
David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital, is watching for a critical market signal. "Lawant said he is watching for one-month implied volatility to once again exceed one-week implied volatility, a shift he said would indicate markets are becoming more comfortable looking beyond immediate risks." Such a shift would suggest traders are moving past the current period of near-term hedging and pricing in a more stable environment ahead.
