Bitcoin Pullback After $15.6B Options Expiry; XRP, Solana Rally
In brief
- Bitcoin pulled back 1% to $83,600 after touching $87,000 intraday, a level untouched in months
- $15.6B Bitcoin options expired Friday, driving open interest down 14.39% and volume down 13.68%
- Fed rate-hike odds for October climbed to 75% on CME FedWatch as core PCE inflation sits at 3.4%
- XRP and Solana rallied 4.37% and 3.36% respectively, buoyed by ETF inflows and network upgrades
Options Expiry and Liquidation Pressure
The Friday options expiry reshaped the derivatives landscape. Open interest and 24-hour trading volume both fell sharply, down 14.39% and 13.68% respectively, signaling the typical post-expiry liquidity drain. Liquidations tilted bullish: $161.96 million in long positions against $156.1 million in shorts in the last 24 hours, suggesting buyers absorbed more pain than sellers.
Bitcoin's daily setup still reads bullish. The 50-day moving average sits above the 200-day in a pattern known as a golden cross—a technical signal that often precedes sustained rallies. That structure didn't break on Friday's dip. It's held.
Fed Rate Bets Heat Up
The pullback coincided with rising odds of another rate hike. The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. But the market's focus has shifted to October. Odds of an October hike have since climbed to roughly 75% on the CME's FedWatch tool and 68.5% on Myriad Markets.
What's driving the shift? Core PCE inflation at 3.4%, near a four-year high. Fed Governor Michael Barr said on September 23 that "further policy adjustments are likely needed." Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting dot plot projected a median rate of just 4.1% through the end of 2027, suggesting only one more hike was likely—but that math changes if inflation doesn't cool.
Two key reports land next week: September's Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data lands September 30, followed by the September jobs report on October 2. Either could reignite rate-hike bets.
XRP and Solana Keep Climbing
While Bitcoin consolidated, altcoins pushed higher. XRP is up 4.37% over the past day and 15.45% over the week, trading near $1.58, at a $99 billion market cap. The rally's been fueled by ETF inflows—XRP ETFs notched a nine-day inflow streak worth $1.6 billion in late August, and inflows have continued since.
Solana is up 3.36% on the day and 9.33% over seven days, changing hands at around $119.84 and a $70 billion market cap. The network's momentum came partly from technical progress. The network's Alpenglow upgrade, which cuts transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds, already cleared a validator governance vote with overwhelming support. Spot Solana ETFs from Fidelity, Grayscale, and VanEck—which launched back in November 2025—continue to see inflows.
Market Breadth Signals
Total crypto market cap sits at $2.87 trillion, down from the $3 trillion-plus level reached earlier this week. Sentiment has cooled slightly. The Fear and Greed Index has eased to 72 from a peak of 79—still in greed territory, but trending toward equilibrium.
The picture: Bitcoin's intermediate trend remains intact, but near-term volatility tied to Fed policy and options mechanics is real. Altcoins have decoupled upward, riding ETF flows and network upgrades. Consolidation before the inflation data lands September 30 wouldn't surprise anyone watching the charts.
