Bitcoin rebounds to $82,295 as Myriad traders cut odds of $87,500 October high
In brief
- Bitcoin traded at $82,295, up 1.28% in 24 hours, per Decrypt's Oct 16 snapshot.
- Liquidations hit $948 million after Thursday's drop below $80,000; 90.6% were longs, per CoinGlass data.
- Decrypt's analysis flags $81,603 as the key level; the 200-day EMA sits at $75,759.
- Myriad traders cut odds of an $87,500 October high to 31%, from 45% Tuesday.
A bounce after a rough week
The broader crypto market bounced after spending most of the week moving lower. In the same snapshot, Ethereum gained 4.17% to $2,473.17, Solana rose 3.02% and XRP added 2.03%. Zcash was the strongest of the top 15 largest coins. It rose 10.29% to $1,222.02 (lifting its market cap to $20.67 billion), which roughly erased the almost 10% it lost on Thursday.
Thursday's drop was expensive for leveraged traders. It triggered $948 million in liquidations, and 90.6% of them were long positions, according to CoinGlass data cited by Decrypt.
What Lanz's chart reading shows
On the daily chart, Lanz identified $81,603 as an important level, and Bitcoin was trading close to it. Thursday's wick to $79,711 dipped below that level and below the 50-day exponential moving average at $80,407. The 200-day EMA sat at $75,759 (about 8% below the price at the time), and because the 50-day was still above it, he says the long-term trend read bullish.
The momentum gauges look weaker. The Average Directional Index read 25.5, barely above the 25 line that confirms a trend, and sellers (DI-) led buyers (DI+). The Relative Strength Index stood at 48.9, which is neutral with a slight lean to sellers.
Lanz lays out three scenarios. In the bullish one, buyers defend $81,603 and close above $84,246, which would open $85,301, $86,644 and the $87,423 high (ideally confirmed by a rising ADX). The sideways case keeps Bitcoin between the $80,365 swing low and $84,246. The bearish case starts with a daily close below $81,603, which puts $80,407 and $80,365 in play, then $78,003 and the $75,759 to $75,093 zone where the 200-day EMA meets the 50% retracement.
Myriad traders aren't so sure
Myriad is a prediction market built by Dastan, the company that owns Decrypt. Traders there put the odds of Bitcoin hitting a high of $87,500 in October at 31%, down from 45% on Tuesday. In a separate Myriad market, they put the chance of BTC falling to $77,500 at 43%.
Those numbers are what traders are betting, not probabilities.
