Bitcoin retested $72,500 as $9B options expiry nears Friday
In brief
- Bitcoin retested $72,500 for the first time in six weeks, liquidating $342M in bullish leveraged positions
- A $9B monthly options expiry Friday gives bears structural advantage over bulls
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.07B in net outflows over two days amid selling pressure
Options structure favors bears
Deribit holds a 70% market share for the May monthly options expiry, capturing $3.4 billion in open interest for calls and $2.91 billion for puts. The structural imbalance is stark. Even if Bitcoin reclaims $74,000 by Friday, put options will still outpace call instruments by $265 million, locking in a bearish advantage regardless of price recovery.
The put-to-call volume ratio tells the story. The Bitcoin options put-to-call volume ratio stood at 0.8 on Thursday, reflecting $1.57 billion traded in calls versus $1.29 billion in puts. While calls saw slightly higher volume, the concentration of puts at higher strikes reveals where real positioning lies.
ETF outflows and corporate liquidations pile on pressure
The selling isn't isolated to options markets. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.07 billion in net outflows over two days, signaling institutional retreat. Corporate holders are bailing too. Sequans Communications announced plans to fully liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, abandoning its previous accumulation strategy, adding to supply pressure.
Bulls were caught off guard when Bitcoin broke below $78,000 on May 17. The move lower has cascaded into leverage unwinding and forced selling across multiple cohorts.
June calls price in deep skepticism
Looking further out, longer-dated options reflect just how pessimistic traders have become. The $80,000 June call option traded at 0.0103 BTC on Thursday, equivalent to $757, with implied odds of Bitcoin trading above that level at 18% given 28 days remaining until expiry. An 18% probability for a $6,000 move (from current levels) in four weeks reflects the market's baseline bearish bias.
"Bears clearly hold the upper hand heading into the upcoming Friday expiry at 8:00 am UTC," according to market analysis. The options structure, ETF flows, and corporate selling all point the same direction. Friday's expiry will test whether bears can sustain control or if bulls can mount a surprise recovery.
