Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Holds as BTC Dips Below $60K
In brief
- 21Shares conceded Bitcoin's four-year cycle still holds despite earlier prediction it would break in 2026
- Bitcoin fell 52% from $126,080 peak but remains above $54,000 on-chain cost basis
- 21Shares' 2026 crypto ETF, stablecoin, and DeFi forecasts largely missed as capital flows reversed
The Cycle Persists
Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark for the second time in a month, recently changing hands at $59,781 on Wednesday. The pullback marks a 52% decline from its all-time high of $126,080. Yet the asset isn't in free fall—it's holding above its on-chain cost basis of $54,000 according to Glassnode data.
In its State of the Market report, 21Shares said: "Heading into 2026, we believed that Bitcoin's four-year cycle could be finished. Six months in, we have to be honest: price action still looks familiar."
The firm's candor underscores a broader reset in its 2026 forecasts. More assets have actually left crypto ETFs than have entered this year, contradicting 21Shares' earlier prediction that crypto ETFs would jump towards $400 billion in assets under management during 2026. Data from CoinGlass indicates that nearly $3 billion in assets have left crypto ETFs during the last quarter, and crypto ETFs as a whole are down nearly $5 billion since the start of the year.
Forecasts Fall Short Across Crypto Markets
21Shares predicted stablecoin market cap would reach $1 trillion, DeFi total value locked would hit $300 billion, crypto treasury firms would manage $250 billion in assets, and prediction market trading volumes would breach $100 billion in 2026. Some forecasts are tracking better than others. Prediction market platforms had done more than $57.5 billion in volume by the end of May, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, but that pace suggests the $100 billion target remains a stretch.
Market Structure Shift
21Shares noted that despite the familiar price action, market conditions have evolved. "Market structure has clearly changed: ETF ownership is increasingly institutional and the current drawdown of roughly 50% remains far milder than the 80%+ bear markets of prior cycles," the firm said. That structural change—more institutional participation, shallower corrections—may eventually reshape how the four-year cycle plays out. For now, though, the pattern holds.
