Bitcoin's July low may break from midterm-bottom pattern, CoinDesk analysis suggests
In brief
- Bitcoin's low so far this year came about 125 days before the Nov. 3 midterms, CoinDesk analysis says.
- Past cycle bottoms arrived roughly 71, 38 and 13 days after midterm election day.
- Bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1, then recovered to about $81,455 by Oct. 22.
- QQQ's mixed midterm record suggests bitcoin's pattern reflects its own cycles, per CoinDesk.
A pattern that held three times
With the midterms 10 days away, bitcoin is heading into a window that has historically lined up with major bear-market bottoms, according to CoinDesk. Those earlier lows arrived approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.
The run-up looked similar each time. Bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote.
This year doesn't fit that script.
The July low and the recovery
By Oct. 22, bitcoin had recovered to around $81,455 (roughly 40% above its July 1 low). CoinDesk said the recovery suggests the timing of the bottom could differ from past cycles. It's framed as a possibility, not a confirmed cycle low.
Shorter-term numbers are mixed. Bitcoin and the Invesco QQQ Trust were both down roughly 6% over the past 30 days, while over 90 days bitcoin was up 26% against a 3% gain for QQQ. QQQ's pullback followed an all-time high of $762.86 on Oct. 6.
Is it the election or the cycle?
CoinDesk also checked whether tech stocks show the same midterm weakness. The QQQ fell roughly 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low (much of that decline came after election day), and it dropped 17% in the three months before the 2022 vote.
The pattern isn't clean, though. QQQ gained 17% over the six months before the 2014 midterms, which shows the election link doesn't hold every time.
That's why CoinDesk concluded that bitcoin's historical midterm weakness reflects its own market cycles more consistently than an election effect. If that reading holds, the July low may have been this cycle's bottom, but the analysis stops short of calling it.
Frequently asked questions
When did bitcoin bottom in past midterm election cycles?
According to a CoinDesk analysis, bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, shortly after the preceding U.S. midterm elections. Those lows arrived approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.
Why does the 2026 bitcoin cycle look different from past midterm years?
CoinDesk found bitcoin's lowest price so far this year was $57,850 on July 1, about 125 days before the Nov. 3 election. By Oct. 22 it had recovered to around $81,455, roughly 40% above that low, which CoinDesk said suggests the bottom's timing could differ from past cycles.
Is bitcoin's midterm weakness caused by the elections?
CoinDesk compared bitcoin with the Invesco QQQ Trust, which fell before or after some midterms but gained 17% in the six months before the 2014 vote. The analysis concluded that bitcoin's historical midterm weakness reflects its own market cycles more consistently than an election effect.
