Bitcoin's longest 2026 profit streak faces macro lows risk
In brief
- Bitcoin's SOPR profitability metric above 1 since August 19—longest bullish run of 2026
- SOPR currently at 1.002, signaling coins predominantly moving at profit onchain
- Analyst David Puell warns Bitcoin could still reach new macro lows despite bullish signal
SOPR Signals Early Bull-Market Structure
SOPR measures the extent to which coins moving onchain do so at a higher or lower price compared to the previous transaction. The current bullish signal has endured for three weeks, marking the longest stretch of bullish SOPR of 2026 so far. Checkonchain, an onchain analytics suite, noted that the current structure is starting to look more like early bull-market recoveries rather than typical bear-market behavior.
This shift matters because in bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold off. In bull markets, sharp dips below breakeven often become buy-the-dip opportunities. Bitcoin's price held a local range around $80,000 while the SOPR profitability streak continued.
Analyst Warns of Lingering Downside Risk
David Puell, an ARK Invest portfolio manager and one of the industry's best-known analysts, warned that Bitcoin could still hit new macro lows this cycle despite the bullish SOPR streak. Puell stated that more evidence was needed to assume that the next bear-market floor is already in, and suggested that further upside was the less likely outcome going into Q4.
"In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk" — David Puell, ARK Invest portfolio manager
Puell identified SOPR signals as a key prerequisite for changing his long-term bias, requiring the metric to remain above 1 for an extended period. Bitcoin must also start putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows—a pattern that is still absent on weekly time frames. Bitcoin's price increased 25% in August, but that alone doesn't satisfy Puell's bar for conviction.
Not all analysts remain cautious. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju described the bear market as already over in late August based on the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, offering a more bullish read on the current environment.
