Bitcoin slides toward 11-week low near $73,500 after hotter US CPI print

Editorial illustration: A copper-colored Bitcoin coin rests on a stone slope descending to the right, with orange heat-like wisps against a dark blue background.

In brief

  • BTC/USD fell to $73,518, nearly matching Sunday's low, its lowest since Aug. 21
  • October US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% forecast
  • CME FedWatch odds of a 50 bp December hike rose to 14.7%
  • Economist Robin Brooks called the CPI details "discouraging"

BTC retests Sunday's low

TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph showed BTC/USD falling to $73,518. That's nearly the same low it set on Sunday, which was its lowest level since Aug. 21.

What the CPI print showed

The October release didn't include a year-on-year component, because data wasn't collected during the 2025 US government shutdown. Monthly growth still slowed from September's 0.6%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release, shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for over 30% of the monthly all-items increase. Food rose 0.5% (food at home up 0.4%, food away from home up 0.5%).

Energy cooled a lot. The index rose 0.7% in October after a 5.2% move in September.

Economist Robin Brooks called the result "discouraging," while noting that the oil-price spike had contributed to the September numbers.

All the details of this CPI report are discouraging, but October was also the peak of the second big oil price shock this year and that’s obviously going to bleed into core CPI inflation

Fed odds turn more hawkish

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said in a speech on Tuesday that he favored a 25-basis-point hike in December even if inflation cooled from September. Before the report, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing a 96.3% chance of a 25 bp hike at the December meeting. After it, the odds turned more hawkish: 85.3% for 25 bp and 14.7% for 50 bp.

Stocks felt it too, at least at first.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite opened 0.6% lower before recovering those losses. Cointelegraph also pointed to strong labor-market data as a headwind for US equities. Mosaic Asset Company, a trading resource, said it saw signs of "extreme" sell-side pressure on the Nasdaq, which it said could mean the index had formed a long-term bottom. Its read leans on the equity put/call ratio, which jumped above 1.0 (higher than during the trade war selloff in April 2025, according to Mosaic).

Frequently asked questions

Why did the October CPI report have no year-on-year figure?

The October CPI release lacked a year-on-year component because data wasn't collected during the 2025 US government shutdown. The monthly reading still showed growth slowing to 0.4% from September's 0.6%.

How did Fed rate-hike odds change after the CPI report?

Before the report, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed a 96.3% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's December meeting. After it, odds shifted to 85.3% for a 25 bp hike and 14.7% for a 50 bp hike.