Bitcoin slips below $80,000 after hot CPI and PPI prints as analysts map a range
In brief
- Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Oct. 15 after two hot US inflation reports in two days.
- September CPI rose to 3.7% from 3.4%; producer prices jumped 1.3% on the month.
- Sygnum's Köymen sees a range-bound move, with options pricing roughly $80,000 to $87,000.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net $859 million in outflows from Oct. 7 to Oct. 14, per Farside.
- Market-implied odds of an Oct. 28 Fed hike stood at roughly 29% to 34%.
Where analysts draw the lines
Sygnum investment strategist Can-Luca Köymen said in a note that the bank's base case is a range-bound move into the midterms. He said options price roughly $80,000 to $87,000 over the coming month.
On-chain cost-basis data draws much the same box, CryptoSlate noted: support at $80,000 to $81,500 (where the average US spot ETF buyer breaks even) and resistance near $88,000, the break-even for buyers from six to 12 months earlier. Below $80,000, the next floor is around $78,000, the average cost basis of active investors.
Glassnode's Oct. 14 report shows the same levels. It estimated the US spot ETF cost basis at about $81,500, the six-to-12-month cohort near $88,000 and the True Market Mean near $78,000, with liquidation clusters just below $80,000 and near $88,000.
Bitcoin dipped below the ETF cost basis on Oct. 8 and Oct. 13, and it closed back above it on both days.
Leverage is lighter, but ETF flows aren't helping
Köymen said thin spot volume makes price easier to move, but that funding has cooled and recent long liquidations have cleared much of the excess leverage. According to Glassnode, modeled liquidation levels around the current price fell more than 20% in a week. CoinMarketCap research reported Bitcoin futures open interest fell 6% over the past week (broader crypto open interest rose 15%).
ETF demand isn't doing much either. Glassnode counted nearly $3 billion of inflows from Sept. 21 to Oct. 6, but Farside Investors data shows a net $859 million left spot Bitcoin ETFs over six sessions from Oct. 7 through Oct. 14, including $261.4 million on Oct. 14.
Bitget analyst Lewis Huang flagged the $80,000 line in a note.
"A confirmed close below it could signal a breakdown from the current consolidation range and increase the risk of further near-term downside." (Lewis Huang, analyst at Bitget)
The Fed meeting is two-way now
Core PPI rose 0.7%, and with the firmer CPI, those back-to-back prints have made the Oct. 28 Fed meeting two-way. Futures priced hike odds near 50-50 right after the CPI release. They've since leaned toward a hold, with market-implied hike estimates of roughly 29% to 34% across Oct. 15 reports. September PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, was due Oct. 29.
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was scheduled to speak in Bangkok on Oct. 16, his last appearance before the blackout, though Köymen didn't expect his remarks to move markets much.
So what breaks the range? Köymen said it's a catalyst.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Bitcoin fall below $80,000 on Oct. 15?
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after two hot US inflation reports in two days. September CPI rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, and producer prices jumped 1.3% on the month, the largest rise since March 2022 and more than double most survey forecasts.
What Bitcoin price levels are analysts watching?
Sygnum's Can-Luca Köymen said options price roughly $80,000 to $87,000 over the coming month. Glassnode's Oct. 14 cost-basis data puts support near $80,000 to $81,500, where the average US spot ETF buyer breaks even, and resistance near $88,000. Below $80,000, the next floor sits around $78,000, the average cost basis of active investors.
How are US spot Bitcoin ETF flows trending?
Glassnode counted nearly $3 billion of ETF inflows from Sept. 21 to Oct. 6. After that, Farside Investors data shows a net $859 million flowed out over six sessions from Oct. 7 through Oct. 14, including $261.4 million on Oct. 14.
