Bitcoin Tests $63K as Long-Term Holders Exit at Losses
In brief
- Bitcoin traded near $63,020 Friday, down 1.7% from October peak of $126,080
- Over 65% of exchange inflows from long-term holders accepting losses after one to two years
- Selloff reflects macro risk aversion in equities and deleveraging, not crypto fundamentals
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: $425M outflow Monday, $181M and $108M inflows Tuesday-Wednesday
- Early signals suggest heaviest long-term holder liquidation nearing its end
Long-Term Holders Capitulate
Bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 on Wednesday, dropping to an intraday low of $62,640. The token is now 50% below the record $126,080 it set in October. Data from Glassnode confirms that more than 65% of the coins flowing into exchanges are long-term holders realizing losses.
Investors who've held for one to two years are gradually accepting losses and exiting. This isn't panic selling from retail traders or leverage-fueled cascades. The derivatives market shows no leverage-related crowding, with the selling concentrated in spot markets.
Macro Risk-Off, Not Crypto Weakness
Risk appetite across the broader markets has cooled down significantly, with global stocks correcting and deleveraging in semiconductor and AI-related assets accelerating. Bitcoin has grown increasingly sensitive to the macro environment, with rate expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting sentiment steering short-term moves.
The weakness reflects broader market dynamics, not deterioration in crypto-specific fundamentals. Bitcoin's bounce has remained weak even after an encouraging U.S. inflation report, suggesting macro headwinds are the primary driver.
ETF Flows and Signs of Stabilization
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn approximately $51 billion since launching in 2024. Recent flows show volatility: a $425 million outflow on Monday, followed by inflows of $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday.
Early signs suggest the heaviest selling from long-term holders may be nearing its end, with liquidation intensity potentially peaking. If that thesis holds, the selloff could stabilize sooner than many expect.
