Bitcoin tests $74K as Trump signals Hormuz reopening
In brief
- Bitcoin recovered $74,000 zone on May 29 amid Trump's Hormuz reopening signal
- $6.25 billion BTC options expired on Deribit with $75,000 max pain
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost over $2 billion in past two weeks
- Weekend Bitcoin volume fell to 16% of weekly trading post-ETF launch
- Hormuz reopening could lower oil-inflation premium pressing risk assets
The Hormuz gambit and oil inflation
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The EIA logged 20 million barrels per day through the strait in 2024, while the IEA noted 25% of global seaborne oil trade transited the route in 2025. Middle East crude exports have collapsed from about 18.3 million barrels per day before the crisis to roughly 8.8 million barrels per day since March. That supply shock has kept oil futures elevated. Analysts lifted 2026 Brent forecasts to $90.44 per barrel for a third consecutive time.
A credible Hormuz reopening lowers the oil-inflation-stagflation premium that has pressed on risk assets for months. But Iran responded that the agreement had not been finalized and that Trump's account was partly inaccurate—leaving the market to price uncertainty over a weekend when order book depth evaporates.
Bitcoin's weekend liquidity crisis
Bitcoin sat between $72,490 and $74,213 with resistance at $74,200-$75,000. Roughly $6.25 billion in BTC options expired on Deribit on May 29, with $75,000 as max pain, creating a technical pivot that collided with the Hormuz headline.
Institutional conviction has wavered. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $733.4 million on May 27 and $223.3 million on May 28. BlackRock's IBIT shed $527.84 million on Wednesday, its second-largest daily outflow since launch. The 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost more than $2 billion over the past two weeks.
The structural problem: Bitcoin weekend volume fell to an all-time low share of 16% after US spot ETF launches, down from 28% in 2019. When liquidity drains, price dispersion widens. Cross-exchange price dispersion spiked above 18 basis points during weekend liquidity deterioration, versus a typical weekday floor below 5 basis points. Bitcoin dropped over 6% on a Saturday during a liquidation wave, with Bitfinex analysts attributing the severity to thin weekend order book depth.
A 6% move from $73,500 implies roughly $69,000—inside the $67,000-$69,000 range that marked Bitcoin's last major floor before the ETF-driven recovery.
Crypto as macro's first layer
Bitcoin markets function as the first layer of macro price discovery before traditional markets reopen. That turns the weekend into another live test. If Trump's Hormuz signal holds through Monday, oil futures and equity desks will have to catch up to a price discovery that crypto already absorbed. If it unravels, weekend liquidity could amplify a reversal.
