Bitcoin weakens as record 9-day ETF outflow streak signals cooling demand
In brief
- Bitcoin trading near $73,500, roughly 10% below its May monthly high of $81,000
- Spot bitcoin ETF outflows extended to record nine-day streak, signaling waning investor demand
- Long-term holder supply hit record 15.8 million BTC as short-term holders exited positions
- Spot demand remains too weak to sustain a move above $78,000 cost-basis levels
- Polymarket traders assign strong probability Bitcoin closes May between $72,000 and $76,000
ETF Demand Cools
Spot bitcoin ETF outflows reached a record nine-day streak on Thursday, signaling a sharp pullback in retail and institutional demand. The consecutive outflow days mark the longest streak on record for the products since their launch, underscoring investor hesitation at current price levels.
Glassnode said inflows and spot demand remain too weak to sustain a move above cost-basis levels near $78,000. The analytics firm's realized profit/loss ratio sits at 1.56, below levels typical of stronger bull markets, suggesting holders are neither aggressively taking profits nor adding aggressively to positions.
Supply Dynamics Shift
Long-term holder supply reached a record 15.8 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant. Roughly 900,000 BTC of Coinbase reserves crossed the 155-day long-term-holder threshold by sitting still, while short-term holder supply fell approximately 2.2 million BTC since December. The shift reflects a divergence: patient holders are accumulating, while weaker hands have already exited.
Market Sentiment Diverges
On Polymarket, traders assign a strong probability Bitcoin closes the month between $72,000 and $76,000, suggesting limited upside before month-end. The ratio of altcoins excluding the top 10 to Bitcoin is currently just above its 50-week exponential moving average, indicating modest relative strength in smaller tokens even as Bitcoin consolidates.
Risk assets broadly advanced after reports that U.S.-Iran negotiations could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route. That tailwind, however, hasn't lifted crypto demand. The divergence underscores how Bitcoin's weakness stems from buyer fatigue rather than forced liquidation—a subtle but crucial distinction for positioning into month-end.
