Coinbase, Robinhood eye prediction market boom from 2026 FIFA World Cup
In brief
- Bernstein forecasts 2026 World Cup will generate $3B+ sports betting and $5B–$10B prediction market volume
- Coinbase surpassed $100M annualized prediction market revenue in March, months after launch
- Robinhood launching Rothera, CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange targeting $586M 2026 revenue
- CFTC draft rules signal sports event contracts generally not contrary to public interest
Coinbase's rapid ascent
Coinbase has moved quickly to dominate the prediction market sector. The crypto exchange surpassed $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue in March, just months after launching the product. The company rolled out prediction markets nationwide through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users in all 50 US states to trade event contracts.
The timing aligns with explosive growth in the broader prediction market ecosystem. Monthly prediction market trading volume reached nearly $26 billion according to an April report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. Retail traders account for more than 80% of users, and sports betting accounted for more than 39% of prediction market volumes in March alone.
Robinhood's World Cup play
Robinhood is using the World Cup moment to launch Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets. Bernstein analysts said in a research note that they expect prediction markets to be the biggest driver of incremental revenue for Robinhood, forecasting roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for 2026.
The World Cup itself is a massive draw. FIFA expects the month-long tournament to attract roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion during the 2022 World Cup. The expanded tournament will feature 104 matches, transforming what is typically the slowest period for online sports betting.
Regulatory tailwind
The regulatory environment is shifting in favor of prediction markets. The CFTC issued draft rules for prediction markets signaling that sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, removing a key source of uncertainty for platforms looking to scale.
The convergence of regulatory clarity, explosive user growth, and a global sporting event creates a rare window for both Coinbase and Robinhood to cement their positions in an emerging market.
