CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju sees $30,000 Bitcoin floor even if ETFs, treasuries exit

What a full institutional exit looks like

The scenario Ju described is a big one. CryptoSlate framed it as reversing roughly $58 billion in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, plus the sale of the 1.3 million BTC held by publicly traded companies. Farside Investors puts cumulative ETF net inflows at $56.95 billion through Oct. 16. CoinGecko tracks 1.302 million BTC across 180 public-company treasuries (about 6.2% of Bitcoin's maximum supply, worth roughly $106 billion at recent prices). Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, owns 848,250 BTC of that, about 65% of the total.

Bitcoin traded near $82,000 over the weekend after slipping below $80,000 during the week's selloff. A fall to $30,000 would erase roughly 63% of its value from that level.

The MVRV argument

Ju's case rests on the market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV, which compares market cap with the total value of coins at the prices they last moved on-chain. Perly's data put Bitcoin's realized price near $53,855 on Oct. 18. Holding that fixed, CryptoSlate calculates that a $30,000 price would mean an MVRV around 0.56, while McGlone's $10,000 target would put it near 0.19. (Realized price isn't static, though. It would itself change as coins moved during a selloff.)

Ju argued that Bitcoin's worst historical bottom came around 0.6 MVRV. The longer record, per CryptoSlate, includes readings near 0.55 at the January 2015 low and about 0.46 in November 2011, with more recent bottoms around 0.69 in 2018 and 0.78 in 2022.

He also pointed to investors who bought in 2019 and kept holding. For Bitcoin to revisit $10,000, Ju argued, that cohort would have to capitulate after already surviving two drawdowns of roughly 75%.

“Even if all of it leaves, on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k,” Ju wrote on X on Oct. 16

McGlone's case and the caveats

McGlone's Oct. 16 post argued that Bitcoin's rise above $100,000 in 2025, gold's surge past $5,000 and rising government bond yields could signal a reversal across risk assets. He sees support toward $10,000, especially if US equities suffer a 20% drawdown. In that framing, higher yields and restrictive monetary policy would add pressure by making cash and fixed income more competitive as risk appetite weakens.

CryptoSlate added its own caveats. ETF redemptions can turn investor exits into spot-market selling, and corporate financing needs or balance-sheet pressures can drive treasury sales. The market price depends on the bids available when those sales happen, not on the average historical cost of coins.

Cost basis doesn't place a bid on its own.