Ethereum at $1,850 support as analysts debate near-term risk versus long-term strength
In brief
- Ali Martinez projects selling pressure toward $1,560 and $1,070 if Ethereum closes below $1,850 weekly support
- U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $121 million net outflow, marking thirteen consecutive withdrawal days
- Standard Chartered forecasts ETH at $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by 2030, citing stablecoin and RWA dominance
Technical Outlook and ETF Flows
Ali Martinez's analysis hinges on a specific support level. According to his data, a weekly candle close below the key $1,850 support will trigger an acceleration of selling. If this level is broken, the first target of the downward move will be the intermediate support near $1,560. Beyond that, the final point of the decline within the multiyear channel will be the lower boundary of the range near $1,070.
Technical analysis is one input among many. Historical studies show mixed results on the predictive power of support and resistance levels in volatile crypto markets. The framework can guide traders, but it's not deterministic.
Institutional ETF flows offer another lens. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $121 million, marking the thirteenth consecutive day of withdrawals. Whether this reflects a tactical rebalancing or a shift in conviction requires context on total ETF assets under management and historical withdrawal patterns.
Insider Liquidation and Valuation Debate
Bankless co-founder David Hoffman fully liquidated his ETH position on May 26, 2026, after nine years of holding. Hoffman's exit reflects his personal valuation thesis. He said the token had already reached fair value and had lost its upside potential, as the Ethereum network operates "altruistically," giving all economic benefit to Layer-2 projects instead of accruing value to Layer-1 holders. His historical accuracy as a market timer is not established, so this move should be read as one insider's view rather than a definitive bearish signal.
Bullish Long-Term Case
Standard Chartered analysts take a contrasting view. They compare the current ETH drawdown to the collapse of Amazon shares in 2001, when the stock price fell from $113 to $6 despite growth in the company's internal business metrics. The parallel suggests that price weakness doesn't negate underlying network strength.
Ethereum accounts for 50–65% of the stablecoin and tokenized asset (RWA) markets, according to the bank. Standard Chartered maintains its ETH forecast at $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by 2030. That projection anchors the bullish case on Ethereum's structural dominance, not near-term price action.
