Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act 2026 Passage Odds to 50%
In brief
- Galaxy Digital reduced CLARITY Act passage odds to 50% from 60%, citing limited Senate floor time before August recess.
- The bill passed the House in July 2025 but faces Democratic resistance over ethics provisions targeting Trump's crypto interests.
- Polymarket prices 2026 passage at 49%, down from 74% a month ago, reflecting rising skepticism.
Senate Calendar Tightens
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, announced the odds reduction on Friday, citing the U.S. Senate running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its five-week August recess. Galaxy had pegged the odds at 75% in May and cut them to 60% on June 9, tracking a steady erosion of confidence.
The decline mirrors sentiment in prediction markets. Prediction market Polymarket is pricing 2026 passage near 49%, down from highs of 74% a month ago.
Roadblocks Remain
There is still no unified Senate text and no firm floor schedule for the CLARITY Act. The bill's path has grown more complicated. President Trump refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill until Congress passes the SAVE Act, intensifying competition for Senate floor time.
Democratic opposition adds friction. Only two Democrats backed the CLARITY Act in the Senate Banking Committee, short of the seven needed to clear a 60-vote floor threshold. Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren want ethics provisions targeting Trump's crypto ventures in the CLARITY Act.
Progress and Timing
The bill has cleared key hurdles. The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Fox Business that a final CLARITY text could surface around July 4.
But timing remains uncertain. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, framed the downgrade in perspective: the drop in passage odds reflects a delay, not rejection of the framework itself. "The drop in the probability of passage this time is merely a matter of time delay rather than the rejection of the proposal's actual content," Sun said in a statement.
