Glassnode: altcoin short-term holder profit share falls to 12% from 80%
In brief
- Glassnode: short-term holders spent at a profit in about 12% of 300-plus tokens by end-October.
- Late-September share stood at about 80%, according to Glassnode's Nov. 4 report.
- BlockchainCenter's 90-day Altcoin Season Index read 41 on Nov. 4, inside its neutral band.
- CryptoSlate: neither metric directly measures buying, and the two can't be combined.
What Glassnode measured
Glassnode used the short-term-holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) to gauge whether recent holders sold at a profit or a loss. The math is simple. A reading above 1 points to profitable spending, while anything below 1 means coins are being spent at a loss.
By end-October, Glassnode said, short-term holders of typical tracked tokens were selling at a small loss. That's a sharp turn from September (a month that, per CryptoSlate, showed a spot-led rotation into altcoins).
Loss realization shows sellers accepting prices below what they paid. It doesn't tell you much beyond that, though. CryptoSlate said loss realization on its own can't determine whether selling pressure is nearing exhaustion or whether further weakness lies ahead.
BlockchainCenter's breadth reading
BlockchainCenter's Nov. 4 snapshot put its Altcoin Season Index at 41, meaning fewer than half of its eligible major coins outperformed Bitcoin over the 90-day window. The index compares eligible top-50 coins against BTC (stablecoins and asset-backed tokens are excluded) and only calls it altcoin season when 75% of that universe beats Bitcoin.
That 41 sits squarely in the neutral band.
Two caveats apply. A token can gain in dollar terms and still trail Bitcoin if Bitcoin rises faster, and the 90-day index looks backward, so it's testing performance over a past window.
Two different yardsticks
CryptoSlate stressed that neither metric is a direct measure of buying. Glassnode's 300-plus-token spending measure and BlockchainCenter's top-50 performance test also can't be merged into a single percentage or read as one shared group of coins.
So what would a broad altcoin recovery look like? According to CryptoSlate, it'd be more consistent with sustained improvement in spending profitability alongside a growing share of coins outperforming Bitcoin.
For now, the Nov. 4 readings show recent sellers taking small losses and altcoin breadth stuck in neutral.
Frequently asked questions
What is STH-SOPR and how does Glassnode use it?
STH-SOPR is the short-term-holder spent output profit ratio. Glassnode used it to measure whether short-term holders sold at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1 indicates profitable spending, while a reading below 1 indicates loss-making spending.
What does an Altcoin Season Index reading of 41 mean?
BlockchainCenter's index compares 90-day returns of its eligible top-50 coins, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens, with Bitcoin. A reading of 41 on Nov. 4 meant fewer than half of those coins outperformed Bitcoin. The site defines altcoin season as 75% outperforming, so 41 sat in the neutral band.
Can the Glassnode 12% figure and the BlockchainCenter index be combined?
No. CryptoSlate said Glassnode's spending measure across more than 300 tokens and BlockchainCenter's top-50 performance test can't be combined into a single percentage or read as one shared group. It also noted neither is a direct measure of buying.
