Goldman Sachs: MLCC upcycle extends to 2030 on AI infrastructure
In brief
- Goldman Sachs extended MLCC upcycle projection to 2030, driven by hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending
- 2026 MLCC pricing forecast revised upward to 0-5% growth from flat outlook
- Electrical component stocks outperformed hyperscaler stocks by 85 percentage points since early 2025
Revised Forecasts and Pricing Outlook
Goldman has revised its 2026 MLCC pricing forecast upward, moving from a flat outlook to a predicted increase of 0-5%. While modest, the shift reflects confidence in sustained demand from data center buildout. The bank maintained a Buy rating on Murata Manufacturing with a target price of 5,400 yen, signaling conviction in the thesis.
Goldman also rated Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co., a Chinese manufacturer with direct exposure to the growing data center power infrastructure buildout, as Buy. The dual positioning across Japanese and Chinese producers suggests broad sector tailwinds.
Power Demand and AI Spending
Goldman's latest projection anticipates 220% global power demand growth by 2030, a sharp revision from a previous estimate of 175%. The driver is accelerated capital expenditure by AI hyperscalers. Companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta have collectively committed hundreds of billions of dollars to building out AI infrastructure, creating unprecedented demand for electrical components.
Data center electrical component stocks have already delivered an extraordinary run. The cohort has achieved an 85 percentage point absolute outperformance versus hyperscaler stocks since early 2025.
Risks and Constraints
MLCC pricing increases of 0-5% are modest, and if the AI buildout slows or hyperscalers pull back on spending, the upcycle thesis could evaporate quickly. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China also add uncertainty, particularly for Chinese component manufacturers like Nantong Jianghai, where tariff escalations or export controls could disrupt supply chain dynamics. The sector's dependence on a handful of large buyers creates structural fragility despite near-term tailwinds.
