JPMorgan ranks Bitcoin first in its 2027 long-term return assumptions
In brief
- JPMorgan's 2027 LTCMA projects 10% annual Bitcoin returns over 10 to 15 years, per Decrypt.
- REITs rank second at 8.2%, with U.S. large caps at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
- Bitcoin appears for the first time in the report's 31 editions, Decrypt says.
- Bitcoin's annualized volatility is 55% in JPMorgan's estimate, against 18% for stocks.
Where Bitcoin sits in the table
According to Decrypt's breakdown of the report, REITs came second in JPMorgan's ranking at 8.2%. Small caps followed at 7.7%, with U.S. large caps at 7.5%. Gold's projected return was 5.5%.
Decrypt ran the compounding math on those assumptions: $100 in Bitcoin would grow to $259 over a decade, compared with $206 in large caps and $171 in gold. (It's an illustration of the forecast, not a result.)
It's also new territory. Decrypt reported that the 2027 edition is the first time Bitcoin has appeared in the report at all, and that pension consultants and RIAs base their allocation models on assumptions like these. For the previous thirty editions, Bitcoin's expected return in those models was undefined.
The volatility caveat
The headline number has a big haircut built in. Bitcoin's arithmetic return in the report is 20.9% while the compound figure is 10%, a 10.9-point gap that Decrypt attributed to volatility drag. For large caps, that same gap is 1.45 points.
Volatility explains the difference.
JPMorgan put Bitcoin's annualized volatility at 55%, against 18% for stocks. That's roughly three times the swing, and it's why the compound figure (the one the ranking uses) lands so far below the arithmetic one.
Gold and the debasement argument
The bank didn't back the debasement bull case. Decrypt summed up where JPMorgan landed:
JPMorgan called that bull case “wide of the mark” and put gold near the bottom of the table.
Decrypt's read (and it's Decrypt's analysis, not the bank's) is that Bitcoin is no longer being measured against gold. In its framing, the comparison set is now REITs and small caps.
None of these figures are outcomes. They're JPMorgan's long-run assumptions, and the report's own numbers show how much volatility sits underneath that 10%.
Frequently asked questions
Why is Bitcoin's compound return in the JPMorgan report so much lower than its arithmetic return?
The report puts Bitcoin's arithmetic return at 20.9% and its compound figure at 10%. Decrypt attributed that 10.9-point gap to volatility drag. JPMorgan assumes 55% annualized volatility for Bitcoin, against 18% for stocks, and the same gap for large caps is just 1.45 points.
Is this the first time Bitcoin has appeared in JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions?
Yes, according to Decrypt. The 2027 edition, the 31st, is the first to include Bitcoin. Decrypt noted that pension consultants and RIAs base allocation models on assumptions like these, and that Bitcoin's expected return was undefined in the previous thirty editions.
