Kalshi Seeks $40B Valuation Weeks After $1B Raise
In brief
- Kalshi targets $40B valuation, nearly double the $22B reached last month
- Platform claims $178B annualized trading volume by April 2026, up 32x year-on-year
- CME, Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Kentucky have sued the platform
- CFTC sued nine states to defend Kalshi's perpetual futures contracts
- CEO Tarek Mansour said IPO is under consideration, though not this year
Explosive Growth and Valuation Surge
Kalshi's rise has been striking. The platform was worth around $5 billion in October 2025 and $11 billion by December, according to the Financial Times. Kalshi claims to have achieved an annualized trading volume of $178 billion by April 2026, up 32x year-on-year. CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC that Kalshi is "basically thinking about" an IPO, though not this year. "A company of our financial profile with the rate of growth that we're seeing, that sort of conversation has to happen," Mansour said in a statement.
Yet growth masks a darker picture. Roughly two-thirds of bets on Kalshi lose money, the Financial Times reported. Kentucky alleges that 89% of the platform's 2025 volume came from sports contracts, a key detail in ongoing legal disputes.
Federal-State Regulatory War
Kalshi faces a patchwork of legal challenges. CME sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures contracts. Arizona filed criminal charges in March, while a Massachusetts judge barred Kalshi's sports markets in January. Nevada has extended a ban on prediction markets. Most recently, Kentucky sued Kalshi and rival platform Polymarket, accusing them of running illegal sportsbooks.
The CFTC has fought back hard. The agency sued Kentucky to block its enforcement, marking the ninth state it has taken to court.
The Political Angle
Political backing is shaping the fight. Trump has called federal authority over the markets "critically important", signaling likely support for a federal framework. Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Legal arguments are also shifting. A Michigan federal judge recently ruled that sports prediction markets are not swaps, and former CFTC and SEC chair Gary Gensler has filed a brief arguing the same. These rulings could reshape how courts interpret Kalshi's products across jurisdictions.
