Prediction markets hit $50B in June as World Cup crushes sportsbooks
In brief
- Kalshi posted $31 billion notional volume in June, up 70% from May, with World Cup markets reaching $22.42 billion.
- Polymarket's international exchange hit $10.8 billion; U.S. platform logged $3.5 billion monthly volume.
- Traditional U.S. sportsbooks projected to handle only $2.8–$4.3 billion across the entire 104-match tournament.
- Kalshi's daily active users jumped 36% mid-to-end June, while DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM each fell 32–41%.
The World Cup moment
Kalshi posted $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, with sports contracts accounting for around 85% of its trading. World Cup-specific volume on its platform has now reached $22.42 billion, with an additional $7.4 billion generated in June alone before the group rounds were complete.
Polymarket's international exchange set a new monthly record at $10.8 billion overall trading volume. Its regulated U.S. platform separately logged $3.5 billion, nearly double May's total. The newer entrant, Rothera (a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group), launched in June and processed $2 billion in its debut month, already capturing 7% of the U.S. prediction market according to Bank of America.
By contrast, U.S. legal sportsbooks are projected to handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion across the tournament's 104 matches. That's roughly one-tenth the volume prediction markets achieved in a single month.
User migration and regulatory tailwinds
Kalshi's user base tells the story. By June 30, daily active users were 36% above their June 15 level. Over the same period, DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel dropped 41%, and both BetMGM and Caesars declined 32%.
Regulatory clarity helped. Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC in 2022 for operating unregistered event-based derivatives, but the company has since moved to legitimacy. It acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million in late 2025 and received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC in November 2025. The company launched a U.S. iOS app in December 2025 and removed its waitlist in May 2026, allowing Americans to use the platform legally.
The U.S. version requires full KYC identity verification and settles in dollars. The global platform—still geoblocked for U.S. IPs—has no identity checks, settles in USDC, and carries a wider range of markets.
Beyond sports
What sets prediction markets apart isn't just World Cup betting. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets cover far more than sports—both platforms carry contracts on political elections, economic data, and reality TV outcomes. On Polymarket alone, U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million on political markets over the past year, more than any other country, ahead of Hong Kong's $422 million.
Marketing amplified the shift. Both Kalshi and Polymarket advertised heavily during games, with ads running during halftime and hydration breaks. Kalshi's partnership helped too—named FIFA's official prediction market partner part-way through the tournament, it signed a co-branding deal with ADI Predictstreet on June 26, securing in-venue branding and promotional placement.
The numbers speak for themselves. Prediction markets didn't just compete with traditional sportsbooks in June—they lapped them by an order of magnitude.
