SpaceX IPO prices at $1.77T; Polymarket predicts $2T+ debut
In brief
- SpaceX IPO priced June 11, 2026 at $1.77 trillion on Nasdaq
- Polymarket assigns 64% odds of $2T+ close, 5% odds of $3T+ on debut
- Onchain derivatives converge on $1.8T–$2.1T valuation range
- Market sentiment signals strong but measured opening performance
Onchain Markets Converge on Valuation Range
Ventuals and trade.xyz offered onchain perpetuals futures on Hyperliquid for SpaceX's valuation, while Polymarket assigned a 64% probability that SpaceX would close its first trading day above a $2 trillion valuation. The decentralized betting platform also priced in a 5% chance of a $3 trillion close.
Right now, traders on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, assign a 64% chance that SpaceX will close its first trading day above a $2 trillion valuation.
The convergence between traditional IPO guidance and onchain market signals suggests a disciplined view. Traders aren't betting on a blowout; they're pricing in a solid but measured debut.
The Bitcoin-Nasdaq Test
For bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as a real-world test of a dominant narrative: that the offering has been draining risk capital from crypto, contributing to recent price declines. Bitcoin and Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures showed strong positive correlation since March, but the correlation broke down in May as the Nasdaq rallied sharply while bitcoin fell.
Trading firm Wintermute noted that the correlation between bitcoin and Nasdaq is particularly strong during Nasdaq declines. If SpaceX opens strong and sustains momentum, it could either reinforce the capital-drain thesis or signal that crypto and equities are decoupling at a structural level. Either way, today's price discovery onchain will offer real data for that debate.
The market expects a strong debut, but not a blowout.
