SpaceX shares fall 11% on $18.4B capex spending and lockup expiry
In brief
- SpaceX shares fell 11% premarket Wednesday despite 92% Q2 revenue growth
- JPMorgan projects capex of nearly $200 billion in 2027 and 2028
- 911.5 million shares eligible for sale Thursday could increase public float 143%
- SpaceX held all 18,712 bitcoin through Q2, worth approximately $1.1 billion
Strong earnings, weak market reaction
SpaceX's revenue rose 92% from a year earlier to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion, signaling operational leverage across its core business. Yet the market fixated on the other side of the balance sheet.
The company spent $18.4 billion during the quarter as it expanded Starlink, Starship and its AI infrastructure. JPMorgan analysts flagged a deeper structural issue in their note to clients.
"We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers"
— JPMorgan analysts
Bitcoin holdings stable; lockup expiration looms
SpaceX held all 18,712 bitcoin on its balance sheet through the quarter. The company reported no bitcoin sales in Q2. The position was worth about $1.1 billion at the end of June, though the stake lost roughly $195 million in value during the quarter.
The more immediate catalyst was Thursday's lock-up expiration, when 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale. That release could potentially increase the public float by 143%, a threshold that typically triggers pre-expiration selling pressure.
Analyst views split
JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 from $225, acknowledging the growth narrative but flagging cash flow headwinds. Raymond James reiterated its Street-high $800 price target, suggesting wider divergence in how the Street values the company's long-term capex strategy. Shares are currently changing hands at $111.80.
