SPCX Perpetual Surges to $2.4T SpaceX Valuation on Hyperliquid
In brief
- SPCX rebounded to $176–$183 Friday from $153 lows earlier in the week
- Derivatives imply $2.4 trillion SpaceX valuation, 35% above $1.77 trillion IPO price
- Polymarket assigns 70% odds to SpaceX closing first day above $2 trillion
- SPCX open interest reached $216 million with $150M+ daily volume
- SPCX is cash-settled derivative with no claim on SpaceX equity
Crypto markets price a bullish first day
The rebound marks a sharp turnaround. SPCX fell approximately 30% over the past few weeks, with Wednesday's level near $157 implying only a 16% premium to SpaceX's $135 IPO price. That was down sharply from May, when the contract briefly traded near $216—implying a 60% first-day premium.
At Friday's $183 level, the implied premium sits back near 36%. Bloomberg reported that IG International derivatives imply a SpaceX valuation of approximately $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation set by the IPO price.
Polymarket traders assigned 70% odds to SpaceX closing its first trading day above $2 trillion, suggesting broad optimism across decentralized derivatives platforms.
The nature of SPCX
It's crucial to note what SPCX is—and what it isn't. SPCX is a cash-settled derivative that does not give holders SpaceX shares, allocation rights, or any claim on the company. Traders are betting on price movements, not acquiring equity. This distinction matters for retail participants considering exposure to SpaceX's public debut.
Open interest in SPCX stood near $216 million, with 24-hour volume above $150 million on Hyperliquid, indicating substantial liquidity for a derivative market. The contract's three-week decline and recent recovery suggest traders were pricing in risk before Friday's IPO, then repositioning as the event approached.
