TrendForce: Data center power demand to hit 161 GW in 2026
In brief
- Data center power demand projected to reach 161 GW in 2026, a 31% jump from 2025.
- AI servers expected to account for 33.4% of data center power demand in 2026, up from 25%.
- By 2030, data centers face a projected 268 GW shortfall between power demand and grid capacity.
- US data center power deficit could exceed 170 GW by 2030, concentrated in PJM, ERCOT, MISO.
AI Servers Reshape the Power Equation
AI servers are expected to account for roughly 33.4% of total data center power demand in 2026, up from about 25% in 2025. That shift matters because it signals where capital and electricity are flowing. By 2027, TrendForce expects that share to cross 40%. Artificial intelligence is identified as the single biggest variable driving these increases.
Capital expenditure from major cloud service providers is projected to grow at annual rates above 30% into 2027, meaning the infrastructure buildout won't slow anytime soon. By 2027, that figure is forecast to reach 211 GW, and a projected 490.7 GW by 2030.
The math turns grim when you compare demand to supply.
The Grid Can't Keep Up
Global grid capacity available for data centers will top out at roughly 222.6 GW by 2030. That's a problem. The gap between what data centers need and what grids can provide is staggering: a shortfall of approximately 268 GW.
In the United States, the crunch is even sharper. TrendForce flags a US deficit exceeding 170 GW by 2030, and it's concentrated in the grid regions where data centers are already clustering most aggressively: PJM, ERCOT, and MISO. The concentration of demand in US grid regions like PJM, ERCOT, and MISO could drive up wholesale electricity prices in those areas.
For data center operators, the constraint is real. Power availability is becoming the primary constraint on growth.
Searching for Solutions
TrendForce highlights high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems as one avenue for improving transmission efficiency. HVDC technology allows power to be moved over long distances with lower losses than traditional alternating current lines, potentially easing regional bottlenecks. But infrastructure upgrades take time, and the demand curve is steep.
The data center industry faces a choice: build new generation capacity (nuclear, renewables, or both), upgrade transmission networks, or watch electricity costs climb in regions where power becomes scarce. None of those paths is quick or cheap.
