XRP slides as Senate shelves Clarity Act and Fed decision looms
In brief
- Senate postponed Clarity Act vote to prioritize Russia sanctions and federal nominations, narrowing legislative window to early August.
- XRP trades at $1.0641 with $65 billion market cap, trapped in descending channel since peaking near $3.40 mid-2025.
- Technical indicators show bearish alignment: death cross, RSI at 40.9, ADX at 11.2 signals directionless trading.
- Fed Chair Warsh's FOMC meeting this week could trigger volatility; dovish signals may unlock Fibonacci support near $1.10–$1.12.
The Clarity Act and the August window
The Senate formally shelved the Clarity Act on Monday, deferring what had been a modest tailwind for XRP holders. The bill would codify the token's commodity classification into law, providing the legal bedrock that institutional custodians, banks, and ETF issuers need to feel comfortable building products around it.
The timing matters. The chamber's August recess begins around August 7, leaving a thin frame for the bill to be approved this year. Miss that window, and the next opportunity might not come until 2027. Institutional appetite for XRP exposure hinges partly on this regulatory clarity. Standard Chartered has a conditional $8 price target contingent on full Senate passage plus $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows—a scenario that's grown less probable with each legislative delay.
Technical weakness and the death cross
Charts tell a grimmer story than any bill delay. The token peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 and has been in a sustained descending channel ever since, logging lower highs and lower lows for months. The 50-day EMA is trading below the 200-day EMA in the formation traders call a death cross. When the shorter average sits below the longer one, it signals the medium-term trajectory is still pointed downward, regardless of short-term bounces.
The Relative Strength Index reads 40.9, deep in bearish territory. The Average Directional Index sits at 11.2—one of the weakest readings XRP has posted all summer. Readings below 25 signal no confirmed trend is in place; sub-20 readings like this are associated with choppy, directionless markets. XRP has been stuck in exactly this trendless limbo for most of July, though the directional indicator is beginning to rotate from bearish dominance toward bullish pressure.
Support zones and the Fed wild card
The current bearish Fibonacci leg runs from $1.1646 down to $1.0450. Below that price, the next Fib support is $1.0125, followed by $0.9711. XRP's 24-hour range sits between $1.0450 and $1.0679—essentially at the lower bound of the current Fibonacci leg.
The Fed decision could shift everything. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% at his second FOMC meeting. Yet CME FedWatch put hike odds near 38% as recently as last weekend—the highest of this cycle. If Warsh holds and signals a dovish tone or hints at September cuts, crypto gets a relief pop. XRP could test the Fibonacci golden zone between $1.10 and $1.12. Any hawkish surprise would likely accelerate the breakdown toward $1.0125 and beyond.
