Yardeni forecasts S&P 500 and gold both hitting 10,000 by 2029
In brief
- Yardeni forecasts S&P 500 and gold both reach 10,000 by end of 2029
- S&P 500 intermediate target: 7,700 by end of 2026; gold more than doubles from $4,500/oz
- Framework anchored on EPS exceeding $450, 22x P/E multiple, sustained economic expansion
- 'Roaring 2020s' thesis excludes crypto and digital assets from projections
Path to Five Digits
Yardeni's forecast rests on two structural pillars: earnings per share exceeding $450 by decade's end and a maintained price-to-earnings multiple of 22x. As an intermediate checkpoint, the strategist projects the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by the end of 2026.
The gold target carries equal weight. Gold is currently trading near $4,500 per ounce, meaning a move to $10,000 would represent a gain of more than 120%. That shift would be unusual in historical context — equities and gold have typically moved in opposite directions during market stress.
Breaking the Traditional Playbook
Yardeni's analysis suggests the traditional inverse cyclical relationship between gold and equities has broken down, or at least evolved. Both assets rising in tandem implies a macro environment where inflation concerns, geopolitical risk, and growth expectations align to lift both simultaneously — a scenario that would depart sharply from the 2010s playbook.
The projections are part of his broader Roaring 2020s thesis, a framework he's been building since around 2020 that bets on sustained economic expansion, corporate profit growth, and a favorable environment for risk assets. Yardeni maintained these forecasts through the 2024 US election cycle and its aftermath, through shifting Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical disruptions.
One note: the framework contains no mention of Bitcoin, crypto, or digital assets — a deliberate omission that underscores Yardeni's focus on traditional macro variables and corporate fundamentals as the drivers of wealth creation through the decade.
Frequently asked questions
Why would gold and stocks both rise together?
Yardeni's thesis suggests the traditional inverse relationship has broken down. Both assets could rise if sustained economic expansion, corporate profit growth, and geopolitical risk create an environment where inflation and growth expectations lift equities and gold simultaneously—departing from the 2010s pattern where they moved in opposite directions.
What's the intermediate target for the S&P 500?
Yardeni projects the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by the end of 2026 as a milestone on the path to 10,000 by 2029.
How much would gold need to gain to reach $10,000?
Gold is currently near $4,500 per ounce. A move to $10,000 would represent a gain of more than 120% from current levels.
