ASML Raises 2026 Forecast on AI, Crypto Demand; Plans 30% Production Boost
In brief
- ASML posted €9.326B Q2 net sales, €2.9B profit, with 54% gross margin.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to €43–45B; gross margins expected 54–56%.
- Company plans 30% production increase for Low-NA EUV systems in 2027.
- CEO Christophe Fouquet attributes demand acceleration to AI and cryptocurrency convergence.
- EUV business expected to grow 45% in 2026; additional 30% increase under study for 2028.
Capacity expansion and guidance lift
ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion, with gross margins expected to land in the 54% to 56% range. The company plans to boost production of its Low-NA EUV lithography systems by 30% in 2027, building on roughly 65 units expected to ship in 2026.
The expansion reflects confidence in sustained demand. The EUV business alone is expected to see roughly 45% growth, a staggering figure for equipment that costs upward of $15 million per unit. Management is already studying an additional 30% increase for 2028, alongside expanded capacity for its DUV immersion systems.
Why ASML matters
ASML is the only company on the planet that makes extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, the tools that TSMC, Intel, and Samsung need to manufacture the most advanced chips. EUV systems are among the most complex machines ever built, with over 100,000 components each.
This monopoly position makes ASML's capacity decisions consequential for the entire semiconductor industry. ASML's equipment sits at the center of US-China tensions over semiconductor exports, with Washington restricting sales to mainland Chinese chipmakers while ASML navigates export controls and geopolitical pressure.
The AI and crypto catalyst
CEO Christophe Fouquet attributed the demand acceleration to two converging forces: artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.
Both sectors depend on cutting-edge silicon. AI workloads drive demand for advanced processors at hyperscalers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta. Cryptocurrency mining and blockchain validation also require high-performance chips, sustaining a second pillar of semiconductor consumption. Together, these forces are pulling forward chipmakers' capital expenditure cycles, which in turn drives orders for ASML's lithography equipment.
The expansion signals confidence that this upcycle will persist beyond the near term. It's a bet that AI and crypto aren't transient demand spikes but structural forces reshaping semiconductor economics.
