ASML shares fell 12% in October despite record quarter and raised guidance

A record quarter on paper

ASML reported third-quarter 2026 net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of approximately €5.0 billion. Both figures topped expectations and were a significant jump from the same period a year earlier, according to Crypto Briefing's account of the results.

EUV systems made up 49% of system sales in the quarter. That's a big share, and Crypto Briefing reported that those machines are sold out until 2028 (the kind of order visibility most manufacturers don't get).

Management lifted its full-year 2026 sales guidance to €44–45 billion. For the fourth quarter, the company projected sales of €14.2–15.2 billion, with gross margin expected around 56–57%.

The stock went the other way

Shares slipped roughly 2% in regular trading right after the announcement. Then came October 22, when ASML dropped 6.9% in a single session and landed near $1,560, per Crypto Briefing. By month's end, the cumulative decline had reached 12%.

The record results didn't hold the stock up.

What Crypto Briefing blamed

Crypto Briefing's analysis doesn't pin the drop on ASML itself. It points to a sector-wide retreat from AI and semiconductor stocks that accelerated through the second half of October. Intel issued a disappointing fourth-quarter outlook, and Lam Research (another major chip equipment supplier) flagged supply constraints. Inflation data unsettled investors too, as did questions about whether massive AI spending will ever generate adequate returns.

Those are the outlet's explanations, not confirmed causes.

The same report describes ASML as holding a monopoly on EUV technology, and notes that every leading-edge logic and memory chip requires it, including the processors and high-bandwidth memory that power AI data centers. It's the AI trade, in other words, that ASML sits underneath, and it's the same trade investors were pulling back from in October.