Binance's $6.4 billion hack: why Bitcoin fell about 4%, not 11% as in 2018
In brief
- Chainalysis and TRM Labs put the Binance theft at roughly $6.4 billion, per Decrypt.
- Bitcoin was down about 4% a day later, versus nearly 11% in March 2018.
- Decrypt credits the smaller drop to a far larger market, spot ETFs and institutional buyers.
- Binance said it set aside more than $6.34 billion to cover every loss.
- TRM and Chainalysis tied the attack to the North Korean group behind Bybit.
A bigger hack, a smaller drop
Chainalysis and TRM Labs put the theft at roughly $6.4 billion, more than four times the previous record (the $1.5 billion Bybit heist of February 2025). Bitcoin dipped to about $76,400 on Friday. That's around 6% below where it traded after Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, and more than $1.3 billion in leveraged bets was liquidated.
Now look at 2018.
Attackers took over Binance accounts, created API keys and used them to pump Viacoin while 31 accounts that had pre-deposited the coin sold it. Bitcoin fell from $10,740 to $9,690 within minutes and kept dropping to about $6,600 by April 5 (though the market was already in a bear run after peaking near $20,000 in December 2017).
Decrypt's case for why BTC held
Decrypt's analysis points to a much deeper market. The total crypto market was worth just over $400 billion in March 2018, and it's roughly $2.6 trillion now. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold roughly 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of supply, and sovereign wealth funds including Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council have been buying. BlackRock's fund took in $136 million on Wednesday, according to Farside Investors data. The theft didn't start until 4:05 p.m. ET Thursday, after U.S. markets closed, so Thursday's preliminary $17 million of ETF inflows came before it.
Sentiment slipped but didn't break. CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index fell to 36 from 43, moving from neutral into fear; in 2018 it sat at 12, deep in extreme fear.
HashKey analyst Tim Sun said before the hack that the market’s problem “is not panic selling, but rather insufficient new buying interest.”
What's still out there
The attacker still holds more than 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC, about $2.4 billion that no stablecoin issuer can freeze (more than $3 billion counting other tokens). TRM and Chainalysis linked the attack to the North Korean group behind Bybit, which converted about 84% of the stolen Ethereum into Bitcoin through Thorchain after that heist.
Binance said it set aside more than $6.34 billion of company funds to cover every loss and is buying the missing tokens on the open market and over the counter. About $3 billion is frozen, deposits are operating normally and withdrawals are on track to resume in 45 hours, the exchange said.
Bitcoin sits about 38% below its $126,080 record. Glassnode data show long-term holders underwater on about 4 million coins bought between $85,000 and $118,000.
Frequently asked questions
Why didn't Bitcoin crash after the Binance hack like it did in 2018?
According to Decrypt's analysis, the market is far deeper now: roughly $2.6 trillion versus just over $400 billion in March 2018. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold roughly 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of supply, and sovereign wealth funds have been buying. Sentiment was also weaker in 2018, at 12 on the Fear and Greed scale.
How much did hackers steal from Binance?
Chainalysis and TRM Labs put the theft at roughly $6.4 billion, more than four times the previous record, the $1.5 billion Bybit heist of February 2025. Binance said it set aside more than $6.34 billion of company funds to cover every loss.
Who is suspected of being behind the Binance hack?
TRM Labs and Chainalysis linked the attack to the North Korean group behind the Bybit hack. After the Bybit heist, that group converted about 84% of the stolen Ethereum into Bitcoin through Thorchain, a cross-chain swap network.
