Bitcoin dips below $75,000 as crypto misses Friday's tech-stock rebound
In brief
- BTC/USD dipped below $75,000 after Friday's Wall Street open, per TradingView data.
- Total crypto market cap fell 0.5% while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2%.
- BLS data showed 165,000 October jobs added versus 65,000 expected.
- CME FedWatch pricing of a December 25bp hike rose to 76.8%.
- Keith Alan of Material Indicators flagged $69,000 if the $75,500 area fails.
Stocks bounce, crypto doesn't
The divergence was hard to miss. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively, at the time of Cointelegraph's writing, and some tech names did far better (SanDisk and Micron Technologies were both up 6.3%).
Bitcoin set new multi-week lows instead.
Payrolls beat, and hike pricing climbs
Cointelegraph put the price action next to Friday's jobs data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above market expectations of 65,000. The BLS also revised September's figure up from 29,000 to 60,000 and put the unemployment rate at 4.1% (versus a predicted 4.2%). Hiring gains came in professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing, according to the bureau.
Rate pricing moved too. CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed expectations of a 25-basis-point hike at the Federal Reserve's December meeting rising from 66.9% to 76.8%. That's what the market is pricing, not a decision the Fed has made.
Cointelegraph noted that a stronger labor market can be a headwind for crypto and other risk assets, since it suggests the economy can handle tighter policy (and that can reduce liquidity inflows). It doesn't prove the jobs report drove Friday's move, but it's the backdrop traders were working with.
Where support sits
Bitcoin tested support around its 50-week simple moving average at $77,533. Keith Alan, cofounder of crypto trading platform Material Indicators, warned about the consequences of losing that trend line, which had acted as support since mid-September.
"As strong as this support level looks from both a technical and structural perspective, we can’t confirm its durability before the W close," Alan wrote on X, referring to the weekly candle close.
In Alan's view, BTC/USD could fall as low as $69,000 if the area around $75,500 doesn't hold. A recovery, he said, depends on the pair printing a series of higher highs and higher lows on lower time frames.
That's his read of the chart, not a forecast from LeoDex News. For now, the weekly close is the level he's watching.
Frequently asked questions
Why would strong US jobs data matter for crypto prices?
Cointelegraph noted that stronger labor-market performance can be a headwind for crypto and risk assets because it suggests the economy can handle policy tightening. Tighter policy can reduce liquidity inflows. After Friday's report, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed odds of a December 25-basis-point hike rising from 66.9% to 76.8%.
What Bitcoin support levels are analysts watching?
Bitcoin tested support around its 50-week simple moving average at $77,533. Keith Alan of Material Indicators said BTC/USD could drop as low as $69,000 if the area around $75,500 fails to hold. He said a recovery depends on higher highs and higher lows on lower time frames.
