Bitcoin rebound is a fragile relief rally, Utkarsh Ahuja tells Crypto Briefing
In brief
- Utkarsh Ahuja called Bitcoin's post-midterm rebound a fragile relief rally, not a confirmed recovery.
- BTC briefly reclaimed $80,000 Wednesday before falling toward $75,000 Thursday, Crypto Briefing reported.
- Ahuja's $120,000 to $150,000 end-2027 range is a conditional scenario, not a fixed price target.
- Liquidity, rates and institutional demand outrank regulation in Ahuja's view of Bitcoin's longer-term path.
A rally that didn't hold
Ahuja told Crypto Briefing that Wednesday's rally reflected relief buying, short covering and improved sentiment after the election removed some political uncertainty.
It didn't last.
Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $80,000 on Wednesday before falling toward $75,000 on Thursday, according to the report, as selling pressure returned across crypto and traditional financial markets. More than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated (per CoinGlass data reported by CoinDesk). Ahuja said markets had likely already priced in some probability of a Democratic victory, and he cautioned against reading either the rally or the selloff as a direct verdict on the results. Further weakness in November wouldn't surprise him, he said, since interest rate expectations and broader risk appetite remain unsettled.
He'd previously suggested Bitcoin may have set its cyclical bottom. This week's price action didn't confirm that view, he said.
A scenario, not a call
Ahuja described the forecast as conditional rather than a fixed price target, adding that Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle shouldn't be treated as a reliable timetable. To identify a sustained recovery, he's watching for consistent spot buying and continued Bitcoin ETF inflows, plus BTC reclaiming (and holding) lost price levels during pullbacks. The report noted that a sharp rise in open interest with elevated funding rates could signal excessive leverage rather than healthy underlying demand.
Macro outranks Washington
On policy, Ahuja speculated that Democratic control of Congress could delay or reshape crypto market structure legislation, including the CLARITY Act, with more emphasis on investor protections and industry oversight. He considers global liquidity and interest rates, along with institutional demand, more important than regulatory developments for Bitcoin's longer-term trajectory.
His near-term risk list includes stronger employment and inflation data, renewed tech stock weakness, geopolitical disruptions and persistent ETF outflows. US October payrolls rose by 165,000 against forecasts of 65,000, while unemployment declined to 4.1%, Crypto Briefing reported. Weaker data isn't an automatic tailwind either; Ahuja said it wouldn't support Bitcoin if it raised concerns about a deeper slowdown. The most supportive backdrop, in his view, is easing inflation and improving liquidity without significant deterioration in economic growth.
Frequently asked questions
What conditions does Utkarsh Ahuja attach to his $120,000 to $150,000 Bitcoin scenario?
Ahuja said Bitcoin could move toward that range by the end of 2027 if liquidity improves and sustained institutional demand returns. He described it as conditional rather than a fixed price target, and said Bitcoin's four-year cycle shouldn't be treated as a reliable timetable.
What signals is Ahuja watching for a sustained Bitcoin recovery?
He's watching for consistent spot buying, continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and BTC reclaiming and holding lost price levels during pullbacks. Crypto Briefing noted that a sharp rise in open interest with elevated funding rates could indicate excessive leverage rather than healthy demand.
