Bitcoin flips 68-point Nasdaq deficit into 5-point lead in 60 days
In brief
- Bitcoin gained 2% over 60 days while Nasdaq lost 3%, erasing a year-long 68-point deficit
- Ethereum and Solana outpaced Bitcoin with 12% and 10% gains respectively in the same period
- ETF inflows accelerated in mid-August, signaling tentative institutional interest after earlier outflows
- Glassnode and BlackRock analysts flag the decoupling as constructive but warn conviction remains limited
The 60-day reversal
The numbers tell a stark story. Bitcoin fell 44% over the past twelve months while the Nasdaq climbed 24%, a chasm that seemed structural. Yet over the last 60 days, Bitcoin gained 2% while the Nasdaq lost 3%, a 73-point swing in relative performance.
Ethereum and Solana moved faster. Ethereum lost 56% over the past year but gained 12% over the last 60 days, putting it 15 points above the Nasdaq over that window. Solana lost 58% over the past year but gained 10% over the last 60 days, landing 13 points above the Nasdaq.
The momentum has tightened further on shorter timescales. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all posted gains over both 14 days and seven days while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell in the same stretches.
Why now?
Glassnode CTO Rafael Schultze-Kraft described crypto as slowly starting to hold its own against stocks and looking better over the past two months. The driver isn't a crypto rally so much as equity fatigue. Semiconductor shares had soared roughly 170% through July, but Bitcoin fell about 40% over the same stretch. When AI stocks stalled in late July, that monopoly on momentum cracked.
BlackRock's digital assets head Robert Mitchnick pointed to Bitcoin significantly outperforming during July's pullback in AI stocks. He called the widening decoupling from equities a constructive sign for Bitcoin's role as a diversifier.
The caution remains
Analysts aren't declaring victory yet. Glassnode flagged that Bitcoin had been left out of the broader asset rotation, with spot activity still weak and no convincing return of institutional flows. Glassnode said any real turn should show up first in ETF flows.
The data is mixed. Farside Investors tracked roughly $385 million in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs between August 10 and August 14, but followed by about $487 million of inflows on August 17 and August 18. August had roughly $967 million in net inflows through August 18.
On August 17, Bitcoin was near $63,600 with spot liquidity remaining thin and ETFs posting outflows. Glassnode described conviction as still limited on August 17.
The path forward hinges on a narrower thesis than a full equity collapse. Bitcoin only needs equities to stop monopolizing momentum, a much smaller ask than an outright equity collapse. A genuine equity crash could work against Bitcoin, since broad liquidity stress tends to pull investors into selling risk assets together.
The reversal is real. Whether it sticks depends on whether equities stay sideways.
