Bitcoin nears Fidelity's power-law support line tracked since 2015
In brief
- Bitcoin trading near $62,700, approaching Fidelity's tracked support at $58,000
- Jurrien Timmer: speculative premium driving BTC past $120,000 last year is largely gone
- Digital assets posted third consecutive quarterly loss in Q2 2026, longest streak since 2022 bear market
- Bitcoin ETFs saw largest quarterly outflow since launch; capital rotated into gold and semiconductors
The Model and the Bottom
Jurrien Timmer's power law model plots bitcoin price history on a logarithmic chart with three curves. The lower support line has caught every major bitcoin bottom since 2015. On his latest chart, that line sits near $58,000.
The accumulation zone, tracked in the lower panel, shows bitcoin trading at negative 56% below the power law trendline. That depth lined up with the 2018 and 2022 lows. Timmer believes bitcoin can sit near the support line for months before it turns, rather than snapping back immediately.
The Macro Headwinds
The speculative premium that pushed bitcoin past $120,000 last year is largely gone. Timmer sees no catalyst for a reversal until liquidity returns.
Fast money rotated out of bitcoin into gold, and out of gold into semiconductors. The rotation reflects broader risk-off sentiment. Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch in Q2 2026.
Global money supply growth is slowing, according to Timmer's analysis. That headwind compounds the challenge for risk assets. The question isn't whether bitcoin will bounce—it's when liquidity returns to the market.
