Bitcoin rallies past $62K as options traders hedge against $66K ceiling
In brief
- Bitcoin surged above $62,000 after June payroll data missed economist expectations, cooling Fed rate-hike bets
- Options traders remain defensive with Bitcoin puts trading at 16% premium to calls on Deribit
- Large July 17 options block structures $66K-$68K profit zone, indicating limited upside conviction
The jobs report shock
The US jobs report landed softer than expected, shifting rate expectations fast. Labor-force participation slid to 61.5%, the government cut April and May payrolls by a combined 74,000, and unemployment remained at 4.2%. CME FedWatch data showed roughly a 45% chance of a September hike once the numbers landed. The dollar was on track for its biggest weekly drop since early April.
That's the macro backdrop for Bitcoin's climb. But spot strength and derivatives positioning don't always align.
The hedging signal
Options traders are still hedged, with Bitcoin puts trading at a premium to call options on Deribit, with the one-week 25-delta put-call skew near 16%, down from 25% ten days earlier. The skew has tightened—less fear than a week ago—but it's still elevated. That asymmetry signals hedging money crouched on the sidelines, ready to redeploy if Bitcoin slips.
A large Bitcoin options block on July 17 sharpens the picture. Laevitas data flagged a large Bitcoin options block on July 17. The structure is a long call-option condor, built from long positions at $64,000 and $70,000 against short strikes at $66,000 and $68,000. That trade pays off most if Bitcoin climbs, but only into the $66,000 to $68,000 band by expiration. Push past that range and losses mount. That band runs roughly 6% to 9% above the current spot, near $62,100.
The setup risk
US equity markets closed on July 3 for Independence Day, so the NYSE's calendar keeps most desks shut through the long weekend and creating thin liquidity. That thin tape makes rejection near $66,000 more likely—and more violent if it hits.
A rejection near $66,000 or a fresh break below $60,000 would flip the setup entirely. Either move would confirm what the elevated put skew had been pricing. Losing $60,000 also reopens the low-$57,000s, about 8% under the current spot and a zone Bitcoin already tested during its second-quarter pullback.
The relief rally reads real on the spot chart. The derivatives market, though, is still betting on a trap.
