Bitcoin Rallies to $65,000 on Softer Inflation, Long-Term Holders Sell
In brief
- Bitcoin jumped to nearly $65,000 following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data released Tuesday.
- Long-term holders and short-term traders sold into the bounce at a combined pace exceeding $4 million per day.
- Headline CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year in June, missing the 3.8% consensus forecast and easing Fed rate-hike concerns.
- CEX spot trading volumes climbed 15.3% to $1.11 trillion in June, the first monthly increase in five months.
- Gasoline price declines of 10% through June accounted for most of the CPI slowdown, per Bitget analyst Ryan Lee.
Inflation Data Triggers Rally, Then Profit-Taking
Bitcoin bounced from $61,500 to nearly $65,000 this week, with most gains arriving Tuesday after U.S. inflation figures missed forecasts. Headline CPI rose just 3.5% year-over-year in June, below the 3.8% consensus estimate. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in at 2.6% year-over-year with a flat reading month-over-month.
The softer readings eased concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The dollar index fell half a percent to 100.48 as investors digested the data. June's producer price index also came in lower than expected, adding to the constructive backdrop.
Yet the bounce triggered selling, not accumulation.
Two Seller Groups Emerge
Long-term holders—addresses holding for at least five months, per Glassnode—are selling into the bounce. Many of these investors bought at higher prices and are using the relief rally as an exit point, locking in losses rather than waiting for recovery. On-chain data shows their realized loss volume spiking as price rallied toward $66,000.
Short-term holders who bought near recent lows are realizing profits at a pace exceeding $4 million per day. This selling wave mirrors patterns seen at previous cycle peaks, suggesting profit-taking discipline among traders who captured the bounce.
Trading Volume Climbs, but Caution Remains
CEX spot trading volumes climbed 15.3% to $1.11 trillion in June, marking the first monthly increase in five months. RWA perpetual volumes surged to a record $311 billion in the same period, signaling renewed derivative market interest.
Still, sentiment remains cautious. A 10% drop in gasoline through June drove most of the CPI slowdown, according to Ryan Lee of Bitget. That move reversed before the inflation report, meaning the data may not fully reflect current conditions. Geopolitical risks and persistent fear persist—the Fear & Greed Index moved only modestly from extreme lows, reflecting skepticism about the durability of the relief rally.
