Cantor Fitzgerald: Bitcoin bear cycle nearing bottom in late October
In brief
- Cantor Fitzgerald predicts crypto bear cycle nearing final stage, with potential bottom around late October
- Bitcoin down 51% since 2025 peak, currently 252 days into downturn cycle
- Historical patterns show bitcoin bottoms average 384 days after peak across three prior cycles
- Bank initiated coverage of digital asset treasury firms Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies
Cycle timing and current position
Bitcoin was trading around $59,500 at publication time, down about 51% from its late-2025 peak as of June 10. The cryptocurrency is currently 252 days past that peak. Across the previous three market cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, which would put the current downturn's low around late October if history repeats.
Cantor's analysis is straightforward. The math suggests roughly four months remain before the cycle completes. That doesn't mean precision timing is possible.
The analysts cautioned that the model is not a precise timing tool given macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks. Markets don't move on cycles alone.
Strategic positioning
Rather than chase price action, Cantor recommended investors shift focus from speculative activity to networks with durable value accrual. The bank identified Hyperliquid as a key example, noting it demonstrates fee-driven token economics through HYPE buybacks and burns.
Cantor also moved into coverage of digital asset treasury plays. The bank initiated coverage of Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings, setting price targets of $7.90 and $0.90 respectively.
The downturn itself has been sharp. Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its late-2025 peak after a sharp June selloff driven by persistent exchange-traded fund outflows, elevated interest rates and weaker risk appetite. Ether and most major altcoins have underperformed bitcoin during the downturn, a common pattern in bear cycles.
"Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback" — Gareth Gacetta, analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald
