Bitcoin's 19% slide before Anthropic IPO mirrors its pre-SpaceX drop
In brief
- Bitcoin fell around 19% in the 50 days before Anthropic's Nasdaq debut, per U.Today.
- Bitcoin also fell around 19% before SpaceX's IPO, then declined for 18 more days.
- BTC was 28% above its SpaceX listing-day close 100 days later.
- Strive CEO Matt Cole said a repeat could take Bitcoin to $90,000 by end-February 2027.
- Fundstrat's Tom Lee called the drawdown a temporary rotation into mega-IPOs.
A familiar setup
Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Nov. 13 and dropped below $67,000 over the weekend. At U.Today's press time, it traded at $65,450, according to TradingView.
That's the 19% slide, by U.Today's count.
The timing lines up with Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI models, which was set to start trading on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT on Nov. 19. According to U.Today, the company is offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each (aiming to raise up to $64.4 billion) and would be valued at around $1.4 trillion at the top of the range. U.Today said it has also arranged a $26 billion private placement. For scale, SpaceX raised a record $75 billion in its IPO this summer.
Fundstrat managing partner Tom Lee called the drawdown a temporary rotation of money into mega-IPOs, U.Today reported, with investors selling liquid assets to buy shares in the year's largest offerings.
What happened after SpaceX?
Cole's comparison rests on how Bitcoin behaved last time. Its price also fell by around 19% before the SpaceX IPO, per U.Today. It didn't bottom on listing day, either (after SpaceX started trading on Nasdaq, Bitcoin kept falling for another 18 days). One hundred days after the IPO, it was 28% above its close on the day of the listing.
Cole said that if Bitcoin repeats this pattern after the Anthropic IPO, it could reach $90,000 by the end of February 2027. It's his projection, and it's built on one prior listing.
CZ weighs in
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao shared the comparison of the two charts on X, according to U.Today. His reaction was short. Zhao
called Cole's numbers "an interesting analysis."
The Anthropic listing is set for Nov. 19. On the SpaceX timeline, Bitcoin's low didn't come until 18 days after the debut, so the first few weeks of ANT trading are the window Cole's comparison points to.
Frequently asked questions
What did Bitcoin do after the SpaceX IPO?
According to U.Today, Bitcoin fell around 19% before the SpaceX IPO and kept falling for another 18 days after SpaceX started trading on Nasdaq. One hundred days after the listing, it was 28% above its close on listing day.
Why did Bitcoin fall ahead of the Anthropic IPO?
Fundstrat managing partner Tom Lee called the drawdown a temporary rotation of money into mega-IPOs, according to U.Today, with investors selling liquid assets to buy shares in the year's largest offerings.
